SMM Tin Morning Brief, March 23, 2026:
Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened slightly higher in the night session before plunging sharply, falling all the way to around 335,000 yuan, then fluctuated upward and rebounded, closing at 345,850 yuan/mt, up 0.75%.
Macro: (1) Tesla posted on social media that, together with SpaceX and AI company xAI, it is building TERAFAB, the largest chip manufacturing plant in history (with annual capacity of 1 TW), integrating logic chips, memory chips, and advanced packaging technology. To use solar energy as efficiently as possible, we need to send 100 million mt of solar energy collection equipment into space every year. This requires an enormous scale: the ability to launch millions of mt of materials into orbit, solar-powered AI satellites, and millions of Tesla Optimus robots to assist with construction. All of this requires chips. The Optimus robot alone needs 100-200 GW of chips, while solar AI satellites require chips at the terawatt level. This demand already exceeds the combined current capacity of all global chipmakers and even surpasses their expected capacity in 2030 (based on expected growth). TERAFAB is being built to bridge the gap between current chip capacity and future demand, creating a future for an interstellar civilization. (2) According to a March 21 report on the Nikkei website, Japanese automakers' cumulative global auto sales in 2025 edged down to about 25 million units, losing the top spot for the first time since 2000. Chinese automakers' cumulative global sales reached nearly 27 million units last year, surpassing Japan for the first time to rank first in the world. The Nikkei reached this conclusion based on statistics compiled from data released by automakers and survey data from global automotive information platform MarkLines. According to the report, BYD's sales surpassed Ford in 2025, ranking sixth globally, while Geely's sales exceeded Honda's, ranking eighth. In the pure EV segment, BYD surpassed US EV brand Tesla to take first place globally. Among the top 20 global automakers by sales, six Chinese automakers made the list, more than Japan's five. Chery, Changan, SAIC, and Great Wall were among them.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: In March, most smelters gradually resumed production and work, ending their holiday status. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remained cautious. Downstream enterprises gradually resumed production and work, but orders were relatively mediocre.
Spot market: Overall demand recovered somewhat from the previous period. Trading sentiment in the spot market remained generally active, though the strength seen at lower prices eased somewhat. Downstream enterprises concentrated on restocking at lower prices, with more buy orders placed at low levels, but as the circulation of spot cargo in the market has not yet been fully released, suppliers at each stage showed relatively mediocre willingness to sell, limiting the increase in transaction volume to some extent.
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