SMM Tin Morning Briefing Minutes, March 16, 2026
Last week, the tin market in and outside China generally fell. The most-traded SHFE tin contract price fluctuated downward all the way from around the 370,000-yuan level at the beginning of the week, broke below the key integer level of 350,000 yuan on Thursday, and entered a narrow consolidation phase on Friday, while LME tin prices also came under pressure and moved lower. The market decline was mainly driven by the resonance of macro and fundamental bearish factors: from the macro perspective, hotter-than-expected US inflation data and escalating tensions in the Middle East intensified price pressures, leading expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts to be significantly delayed. The US dollar index surged past the 100 mark to a 10-month high, exerting broad pressure on US dollar-denominated base metals; fundamentally, the market showed a pattern of recovering supply and slow demand follow-up. On the supply side, Myanmar tin ore supply gradually recovered, and major Indonesian enterprises had begun stable production and shipments, easing earlier concerns over supply disruptions. On the demand side, although downstream solder enterprises saw moderate order follow-up in March, the traditional “Golden March and Silver April” consumption season was weaker than expected. Demand transmission from end-user home appliance and electronics sectors remained sluggish, while persistently high prices continued to suppress enterprises’ willingness to conduct large-scale restocking. Most downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement, and overall transactions in the spot market were weak at first and then improved, with concentrated low-price restocking emerging when prices plunged sharply to low levels. Considering that the contradiction between expectations for supply recovery and the slow recovery of actual demand still remained, coupled with unresolved macro pressure, SHFE tin prices may maintain fluctuating trend and remain in the doldrums in the short term, with the price center likely to shift downward. Investors need to closely monitor the intensity of actual downstream restocking demand, the pace of inventory circulation, and US Fed policy moves.
