[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Rebounded on March 17, with the National Economy Making a Strong Start and Getting Off to a Good Beginning in January-February

SMM Nickel, March 17:

Macro and Market News:

(1) National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In January-February, the national economy got off to a strong start and posted a good opening. Value-added industrial output of enterprises above designated size rose 6.3% YoY, total retail sales increased 2.8%, and real estate development investment fell 11.1% YoY.

(2) Trump: The US Fed should immediately hold a special meeting to cut interest rate; the war will end soon, but not this week; once the war with Iran ends, oil prices will fall rapidly like a stone.

Spot market:

On March 17, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel increased by 1,250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,550 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were at -500-400 yuan/mt.

Futures market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract fluctuated upward in early trading and closed the morning session at 137,150 yuan/mt, up 0.55%.

Tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and intensified inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, forming clear pressure on nickel prices. Despite significant macro pressure, the support logic at the industry level remained unchanged, and market concerns over tightening supply of nickel intermediate products persisted. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.