First Quantum Sold Its Turkish Copper Mine; Overnight, Both LME Copper and SHFE Copper Closed Lower [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Monday, March 16, 2026
Futures: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $12,871/mt. It initially saw wide swings and touched a high of $12,942/mt, after which the center of copper prices gradually moved lower and fell to $12,733/mt near the close, finally ending at $12,735.5/mt, down 1.64%. Trading volume reached 22,600 lots, and open interest stood at 307,000 lots, up 3,144 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by increased short positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,520 yuan/mt and rose to 100,760 yuan/mt at the start of trading. Copper prices then fluctuated downward, bottoming at 99,710 yuan/mt near the close, with a decline of 0.86%. Trading volume reached 38,900 lots, and open interest stood at 190,000 lots, down 930 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long liquidation.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On March 12 (Thursday), Canada-based First Quantum Minerals sold its Cayeli mine in Turkey to Cengiz Holding for $340 million in cash as part of its portfolio optimization strategy. Cengiz Holding will acquire the underground copper-zinc mine through its subsidiary Cengiz Insaat. First Quantum CEO Tristan Pascall said, "This sale reflects the company's rigorous approach to portfolio management while focusing on its core strategic priorities." The transaction is still subject to regulatory approval and is expected to be completed in Q2 or Q3 this year. Since 1994, the mine has produced copper and zinc concentrates through underground mining. The mine's operating life is expected to continue until 2036.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of March 13, the SHFE copper 2603 contract showed wide swings and a declining trend. It opened at 100,450 yuan/mt. After the opening, the price rose several times before pulling back quickly, fluctuating widely between 100,320 yuan/mt and 100,620 yuan/mt, and then continued to fall. By the close, it had dropped to 100,230 yuan/mt. The Contango price spread between futures contracts for nearby months was between 300 yuan/mt and 230 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the SHFE copper front-month contract was between a loss of 130 yuan/mt and 10 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to this week, today was the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2603 contract. Under the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM always quoted against the front-month contract. The Contango price spread between futures contracts for nearby months narrowed slightly, and suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouse weakened somewhat, marginally loosening support for spot premiums. Meanwhile, import losses have narrowed significantly, and there were signs that the import window was about to open. If the window opens, it will bring in cargoes from outside China, increasing pressure on China spot supply and potentially capping premiums. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, providing some support to prices, but some downstream enterprises showed limited acceptance of spot cargo with high premiums during the day, and procurement became more cautious. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continued to arrive, while social inventory remained high. As SMM always quotes against the front-month contract, the switch in the price spread between futures contracts is expected to result in high spot premiums against the front-month contract, though this is expected to be corrected on the second trading day. Overall, under delivery logic dominance, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at high levels today.
(2) Guangdong: On March 13, Guangdong spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at 160 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, unchanged from the previous day; 40 yuan/mt premiums for standard-quality copper, unchanged from the previous day; and a 20 yuan/mt discount for SX-EW copper, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 100,595 yuan/mt, down 265 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 100,475 yuan/mt, also down 265 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, traders and downstream buyers were clearly less active in restocking than on March 12, and spot premiums were unchanged from March 12.
(3) Imported copper: On March 13, the average warrant price increased by $1/mt from the previous trading day; the average B/L price increased by $1/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) increased by $1/mt from the previous trading day. Quotes referred to cargoes scheduled to arrive from mid-to-late March to early April.
(4) Secondary copper: As of 11:30 on March 13, the futures closing price was 100,170 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Average spot premiums were 85 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. On March 12, copper scrap prices were unchanged MoM, the sales sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.39, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.48. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 475 yuan/mt, down 120 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 380 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, traders of imported copper scrap said that this week, overseas bare bright copper was quoted at 98%-98.5% CIF China. However, after overseas copper prices pulled back, domestic import traders were generally unwilling to accept such high prices, and transaction prices were mostly around 98%. As domestic demand for tax-included copper scrap increased, import traders were also actively procuring, but overseas supply was limited and prices were not suitable, so port arrivals are not expected to increase significantly.
Prices: On the macro front, US Q4 GDP was unexpectedly revised down to 0.7%, but PCE inflation and job openings data still showed resilience, fueling stagflation concerns in the economy; meanwhile, after the subpoena for Powell was dismissed, the Department of Justice will appeal, which may delay the appointment process for Warsh. In the Middle East, the US military has bombed Iran's Khark Island and is expected to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Neither the US nor Iran intends to cease fire, and the conflict may become protracted. Iran threatened that if its energy facilities are attacked, it will destroy all related US targets. The escalating confrontation between the US and Iran boosted risk-off sentiment, and the stronger US dollar index was bearish for copper prices. Fundamentals, supply side showed structural divergence, with inventory remaining high but warrants declining somewhat; under delivery logic, overall supply remained relatively loose. Demand side, downstream consumption was gradually recovering and being released. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]