SMM Tin Morning Briefing, March 16, 2026:
Futures: the most-traded SHFE tin contract opened slightly higher in the night session and then fluctuated downward, falling all the way to around 392,000 yuan/mt and closed at 372,860 yuan/mt, down 3.31%.
Macro: (1) According to foreign media reports, a government website showed that the US Department of Commerce on Friday withdrew a proposed rule on exports of artificial intelligence (AI) chips. The draft rule had originally been intended to regulate global access to AI chips and was submitted to other agencies for comments at the end of February. The website did not explain the reason for the withdrawal. A spokesperson for the US Department of Commerce had not yet responded to a request for comment. The withdrawal marked another setback for the Trump administration in its effort to revoke and replace the AI chip export framework issued by the Biden administration in January 2025. The rule, titled AI Action Plan Implementation, was posted on the website of the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs on February 26 and labeled “pending review” before being taken down. Documents showed that the plan had considered making foreign investment in US data centers or security assurances a condition for approving exports of 200,000 chips or more. A former official said on Friday that the withdrawal of the latest proposed rule likely reflected internal disagreements within the government over how to achieve global AI dominance and address national security concerns. (2) The US Department of Energy (DOE) said on Friday that Energy Secretary Wright had authorized a 13% increase in export volumes from Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG terminal in Louisiana. In a statement, the DOE said the move allowed the LNG terminal to export up to an additional 450 million cubic feet per day of US LNG to countries without free trade agreements. The statement noted that Plaquemines LNG, the second-largest LNG facility in the US, currently had a total export authorization of 3.85 billion cubic feet per day to countries with and without free trade agreements. Venture Global is the second-largest LNG exporter in the US, and Plaquemines, its second export terminal, exported 2 million mt of LNG last month.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: in March, most smelters are expected to gradually resume production and operations, ending their holiday status. (2) Demand side: downstream purchases remained cautious. Downstream enterprises are expected to gradually resume production and operations, but orders were relatively mediocre.
Spot market: Transactions first weakened, then improved, and later turned subdued amid price fluctuations. Market trading was active when prices fell sharply into the low range, with downstream enterprises restocking in a concentrated manner on dips. However, after prices rebounded and moved back into the high range, purchase willingness was significantly suppressed, and the market returned to a wait-and-see mode. Downstream enterprises mainly consumed existing inventory, with only limited rigid demand following up. Overall trading was sluggish as high prices weighed on activity.
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