Broad-Based Gains in Non-Ferrous Metals Drove a Rebound in Lead Prices, While a Weak Supply-Demand Pattern Limited Upside Room [Brief Commentary on Lead Futures]

SMM, March 17:

During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at about 16,450 yuan/mt. Boosted by broadly rising sentiment across the base metals complex in early trading, lead prices fluctuated upward and touched a high of 16,685 yuan/mt, then fluctuated lower. Near the close, SHFE lead prices fluctuated rangebound in a narrow range of 16,555-16,605 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,600 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 285 yuan/mt, or 1.75%. Inventory at primary lead smelters continued to be digested, and suppliers showed a relatively strong willingness to hold prices firm. Losses at secondary lead enterprises worsened, prompting strong reluctance to sell and pronounced wait-and-see sentiment, while effective market supply shrank. After restocking at lower prices, downstream battery plants slowed procurement, with overall demand remaining weak and capping the rise in lead prices. Lead prices face limited upside room in the short term, and subsequent price moves should be watched for the impact of geopolitics, changes in operating rates at secondary lead enterprises in mid-to-late March, and downstream procurement conditions.

Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.