Russian Aluminum's LME Share Rises, Driving Global Price Momentum Amid Tightening Liquidity

Published: Mar 12, 2026 17:38

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Structurally, by end-February, Russian aluminum's share in LME available inventory rose to 60% from 58% in January, while circulation of non-Russian aluminum remained persistently scarce. Spot buying from Europe and Asia flooded into LME warehouses in a concentrated manner, further accelerating inventory depletion. Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and the Back structure is expected to persist in the short term. In China, however, the market remained in a phase of high inventory plus weak spot fundamentals, and upward momentum was clearly weaker than outside China. Amid diverging domestic and overseas drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio is expected to continue weakening.

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