[Price Review] This week, silver prices continued to consolidate in a fluctuating range, but the war-driven rise in crude oil prices strengthened demand for the US dollar again, putting pressure on precious metal prices and leaving them weaker. Although SHFE silver prices tested the support level of 20,000 yuan/kg to the downside during the week, and LBMA silver prices briefly fell below $80/oz, both later rebounded, indicating moderate support below silver prices. This round of market moves was mainly driven by cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and the still-uncertain outlook for geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Market enthusiasm and capital inflows in the silver market declined, and short-term fluctuations narrowed somewhat. As for the gold/silver ratio, both gold and silver prices showed a fluctuating consolidation trend this week, with the ratio also fluctuating around 60.
[Important Data]
Bullish:
US February seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls: -9.2, below expectations and the previous reading
US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: -1.678 million barrels, below expectations and the previous reading
Bearish:
US January retail sales, month-on-month: -0.2%, above expectations and below the previous reading
US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 6: 382.4, above expectations and the previous reading
The data releases and macro developments to watch next week include:
The US Fed will announce its March interest rate decision and economic outlook, including the dot plot. The market generally expected the US Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, with the probability of an interest rate cut having fallen to near zero.
Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference after the rate decision to explain the policy stance.
US-Iran situation: Since the large-scale military operation launched by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28, 2026, the conflict has lasted for more than two weeks. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the highest level of combat readiness, and the Foreign Ministry explicitly ruled out the possibility of starting negotiations. The transmission effect through the energy channel, namely inflation, far exceeded the impact through other channels. Inflation concerns instead weighed on expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, while the high-interest-rate environment pressured non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.
[Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend amid the tug-of-war between macro disturbances and fundamentals. The sustained impact from the sharp rise in crude oil prices in the short term has gradually been transmitted, while renewed strength in demand for the US dollar and US Treasuries, along with cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, will leave precious metal prices weak in the short term
![Brief Review of the Spot Market and China Inventory (March 12, 2026) [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/VCNvX20251217171735.jpeg)
