[SMM China Iron Ore Import Analysis] China Iron Ore import decline to 210Mt in Jan-Feb ,forecast to rebound in March

According to the latest data from the General Administration of China Customs (GACC), China's total iron ore imports for January and February 2023 reached 211 million tonnes, with a cumulative value of approximately US$9.89 billion. The average import price across these two months was US$101.3 per tonne, a month-on-month increase of 0.3%. An analysis by month shows January imports totalled 110.35 million tonnes, representing a 7.77% decrease from the previous month but a 13.59% increase year-on-year. February imports were 99.67 million tonnes, down 9.68% month-on-month, yet showing a 5.80% increase year-on-year.

The decline in import volumes is primarily attributed to frequent weather-related disruptions in key supplying nations like Australia and Brazil, which adversely affected mine-to-port rail networks and port loading operations, causing a temporary downturn in overseas shipments. Concurrently, operational activity at major domestic ports slowed during the Chinese New Year holiday, impacting the efficiency of vessel unloading, cargo warehousing, and customs clearance procedures. These combined factors contributed to the reduction in import scale during the first two months of 2023.

Looking ahead to March, iron ore imports are forecast to experience a month-on-month rebound. This is anticipated due to shipping disruptions in the Middle East, caused by a partial blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which may lead some vessels to be rerouted to China, thereby boosting import figures. Furthermore, weather-related logistical constraints are expected to ease, allowing shipments from producing countries to normalise. Finally, as March marks the end of the first quarter, some mining companies may increase their shipment volumes to meet quarterly targets, which would further support a recovery in import levels.