Growth in Zinc Concentrate Production Outside China Is Set to Slow Sharply in 2026?

SMM Mar 11 News:

After returning from the Chinese New Year holiday, Q4 reports from listed miners outside China have been released one after another recently. 2025 was a period of concentrated release of new capacity at mines outside China. What was the specific situation? What are the expectations for 2026? Let us analyze it by enterprise:

SMM compiled production statistics for 16 major miners outside China. Based on the disclosed production data, the combined zinc mine production of these 16 miners totaled 5.3 million mt in 2025, up 573,000 mt from 4.73 million mt in 2024 (12.1%). Zinc concentrate production outside China saw significant growth in 2025!

By enterprise:

• Boliden: By mine, the Tara mine resumed production in Q4 2024 and continued to ramp up production in 2025, with full-year production totaling 75,800 mt, up 1,094% YoY; Sweden's Garpenberg mine totaled 101,700 mt in 2025, down slightly 6% YoY; Sweden's The Boliden Area mine totaled 43,100 mt in 2025, down 11% YoY; Sweden's Zinkgruvan mine totaled 78,000 mt in 2025, down 5% YoY; Sweden's Somincor mine totaled 110,600 mt in 2025, basically flat YoY.
• Buenaventura: Zinc mine production was 29,000 mt in 2025, up 2% YoY. The report disclosed that Peru's El Brocal mine had almost no zinc concentrate output in 2025, as resources at the mine were depleted in 2024Q1 and production ceased starting in Q2. Peru's Uchucchacua mine produced 26,200 mt of zinc ore in 2025, up 23% YoY; Peru's Tambomayo mine totaled 0.27 mt of zinc ore in 2025, down 47% YoY. Overall, the Uchucchacua mine contributed the main increment in 2025.
• MMG: Zinc concentrate production was 232,000 mt in 2025, up 5% YoY. Of this, Dugald River produced 183,400 mt of zinc concentrate in 2025, up 12% YoY; the Rosebery mine produced 48,500 mt of zinc concentrate in 2025, down 13% YoY. Its 2025 production guidance was 170,000-180,000 mt and 45,000-55,000 mt, respectively.
• Newmont: Zinc concentrate production was 231,000 mt in 2025, down 10% YoY, mainly due to the grade decline at the Peñasquito mine. The mine's 2026 production guidance is 220,000 mt.
• Nexa: Total zinc concentrate production was 315,600 mt in 2025, down 3% YoY. Nexa has sold, transferred, and assigned all rights, title, and interest in the Morro Agudo mining complex to Casa Verde, and mining activities attributable to Nexa ceased on April 30, 2024. However, higher production at mines such as Aripuanã and El Porvenir offset part of the decline.
• Pan American Silver Corp: Total zinc concentrate production was 55,900 mt in 2025, up 24% YoY. The miner's 2026 zinc mine production guidance is 58,500-62,500 mt.
• Teck: Red Dog produced 462,700 mt of zinc concentrate in 2025, down 16% YoY. Affected by the decline in zinc ore grade, the mine's production guidance will continue to decline in 2026-2027.
• Vedanta: Zinc India, located in India, produced a total of 1.109 million mt of zinc concentrate in 2025, up 2% YoY; Zinc International posted a marked increase in zinc concentrate production, among which the BMM mine produced 42,000 mt of zinc ore in 2025, down 8% YoY, while the Gamsberg mine produced 184,000 mt of zinc ore in 2025, up 61% YoY.
• Glencore: Full-year own-sourced zinc production totaled 969,400 mt in 2025, up 7% YoY, mainly benefiting from higher zinc grades at the Antamina mining area and production growth at the McArthurRiver mining area. However, with declining zinc grades at Antamina and the closure of the Lady Loretta mine in December 2025, its 2026 production guidance has been lowered to 700,000-740,000 mt.
• Antamina: Zinc concentrate production was 454,000 mt in 2025, up nearly 200,000 mt from the previous year. Based on production guidance, the mine's zinc concentrate output is expected to fall to around 240,000-280,000 mt in 2026, with 2027 production guidance continuing down to around 150,000-200,000 mt.

Outlook for 2026
In 2026, zinc concentrate production at major mines outside China will show both increases and decreases. On the supply increase side, new capacity at Oz, Kipushi, and Gamsberg will continue to ramp up production, bringing substantial increments. Peru's Romina zinc concentrate project is expected to start production this year, while Portugal's Aljustrel mine and Australia's Endeavor mine resumed production in 2025, and with more operating time in 2026, their production is expected to increase accordingly. However, the reduction in zinc concentrate production outside China will also be significant in 2026. Based on production guidance, Antamina's annual zinc concentrate production is expected to decline by more than 250,000 mt in metal content YoY in 2026, while Red Dog's zinc concentrate production is expected to fall by around 50,000 mt in metal content YoY in 2026 due to grade decline. Based on the above data, zinc concentrate production outside China is expected to increase by around 100,000 mt in metal content in 2026, with the increment slowing markedly from 2025. In addition, as refined zinc capacity outside China continues to ramp up this year, the probability of a continued marked increase in China's zinc concentrate imports this year is relatively small.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)