Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,313/mt and dipped to $3,282/mt in early trading. It then saw its center fluctuate upward and hit a high of $3,367.5/mt. After entering the European trading session, prices pulled back. In the night session, LME zinc gradually recovered earlier losses and traded back near the daily average line, closing up at $3,326/mt, up $3/mt, a gain of 0.09%. Trading volume fell to 115,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 2,929 lots to 216,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened higher with a gap at 24,505 yuan/mt and touched a high of 24,525 yuan/mt in early trading. It then fluctuated downward as bulls reduced positions, dipping to 24,375 yuan/mt. As bears also reduced positions, prices rebounded and fluctuated near the daily average line, closing up at 24,425 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.02%. Trading volume fell to 47,061 lots, and open interest decreased by 3,653 lots to 770.28 million lots.
Macro: US President Trump: the war has basically ended, and he is considering controlling the Strait of Hormuz; US media: if Mujtaba does not meet US demands, Trump supports having him killed; sources: the Trump administration is considering further easing sanctions on Russian oil; satellite data show Iran is still exporting large volumes of oil through the Strait of Hormuz; broad consensus was reached at the G7 finance ministers’ meeting, with no release of oil reserves for now; sources: Trump is considering suppressing oil prices; National Bureau of Statistics: in February, the CPI rose 1.3% YoY; the PPI ex-factory prices fell 0.9% YoY; southbound funds recorded net purchases of HK$36 billion on the 9th, setting a record for the highest single-day net purchases in history; refined oil prices were raised, and filling up a tank will cost an extra 27.5 yuan.
Spot:
Shanghai: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase sentiment in Shanghai was 2.08, and shipment sentiment was 2.6. Futures zinc prices rose MoM, and downstream players maintained a wait-and-see stance, with limited purchasing and few inquiries. Overall spot trading was average. Traders actively offered shipments, and spot discounts in the market continued to run at low levels.
Guangdong: Refined zinc purchase sentiment in Guangdong was 2.06, and sales sentiment was 2.3. Overall, yesterday zinc prices maintained a fluctuating trend. Some downstream players conducted some pricing at earlier low prices, and there was some wait-and-see sentiment yesterday. Spot premiums were flat from last Friday.
Tianjin: Yesterday, refined zinc purchase sentiment in Tianjin was 2.21, and shipment sentiment was 2.32. Yesterday zinc prices pulled back. In the first session, there were more pricing transactions as zinc prices pulled back; later, as zinc prices rose, downstream pricing decreased. Traders’ shipment premiums held slightly steady, and overall market trading was average.
Ningbo: The market had ample zinc ingot supply. Traders actively offered shipments, and spot discounts fluctuated at lows. However, downstream enterprises held some raw material inventory; there were few purchase inquiries yesterday, and spot trading was weak.
Inventory: On March 9, LME zinc inventory fell by 175 mt to 94,800 mt, a decline of 0.18%. As of March 9, domestic inventory continued to increase.
Zinc Price Outlook: Overnight, LME zinc posted a bullish candlestick; the upper Bollinger Bands band above capped it, while the 60-day daily average below provided support. The US dollar index plunged after Trump claimed he believed the war against Iran had basically ended, and the center of LME zinc moved higher as a result. Overnight, SHFE zinc posted a small bearish candlestick, with the lower Bollinger Bands band below providing support. Last night, driven by LME, SHFE zinc rose; however, domestic social inventory continued to increase, and smelter production is expected to be continuously released. Domestic supply is ample, but consumption currently shows no highlights, and SHFE zinc maintained a fluctuating trend.
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.
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