Weak US Employment Index and Inflation Concerns Weighed on Macro Sentiment, Sending the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Lower [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On March 9, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin contract tracked LME moves at the morning open, plunged quickly and then saw a slight rebound in its price center, closing at noon at 378,890 yuan/mt, down 3.62%. On the LME, three-month tin entered a consolidation phase after the drop and was quoted at $47,745/mt, down 4.61%.

On the macro front, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls report released last Friday showed that the US added 92,000 fewer nonfarm jobs in February, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. The data broke the market’s optimistic expectations that employment was stabilizing, reigniting concerns about the labour market. Although the figures were partly affected by strikes in the healthcare sector, hiring had remained weak in recent months, indicating that the employment slowdown was not a short-term or localized phenomenon. While employment weakened, inflationary pressures did not ease. Ongoing Middle East conflicts continued to push up energy prices, and coupled with uncertainty over the US government’s tariff policy, enterprises faced the dual pressure of rising costs and unstable expectations. US inflation has remained above the US Fed’s 2% target for five consecutive years, and the risk of a new round of price increases is building. Weak employment pointed to an economic slowdown and the need for accommodative support, but elevated inflation constrained policy room; this contradiction made market expectations for the macro trajectory more blurred. In commodities, inflation and geopolitical risks drove funds toward sectors with stronger safe-haven attributes such as energy, putting the metals sector under pressure from fund diversion. Meanwhile, repeated swings in the US dollar trend and interest rate cut expectations left US dollar-denominated metals without clear directional guidance, with volatility intensifying.

In the spot market, amid frequent fluctuations in futures recently, some suppliers suspended quotations and stayed on the sidelines, waiting for further market guidance, and overall trading interest was subdued. Downstream, when prices fell earlier, long-taut sentiment eased somewhat; combined with uncertainty about the outlook, most restocking demand was released around the 380,000 level. Although the most-traded contract price continued to weaken, with terminal follow-through remaining slow, industry chain inventory digestion showed no clear acceleration; this morning, follow-through was mainly in small volumes and small batches.

Overall, multiple factors—including an unstable macro environment, inflation pressure, repeated shifts in US dollar expectations, and expectations of tighter liquidity—intertwined, leaving the metals sector under outflow pressure amid asset reallocation. Industry chain inventory digestion has yet to keep pace with market fluctuations, and the tin price center is expected to edge down gradually in the short term. Going forward, focus should be placed on next week’s US Fed meeting outcome and the March economic projections (SEP), as well as actual follow-through in end-use consumption amid the turbulent situation.