[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Saw Sharp Volatility on March 9; US February Nonfarm Payrolls Unexpectedly Disappointed

SMM Nickel News, March 9:

Macro and Market Updates:

(1) US nonfarm payrolls in February unexpectedly fell by 92,000, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%. Nonfarm payrolls for December last year and January this year were revised down by a combined 69,000. After the data release, the implied probability of a US Fed interest rate cut in June quickly rose to about 50%

(2) Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an said at an economy-themed press conference on the 6th that this year’s fiscal funding arrangements hit “new highs” in three areas; fiscal policy in 2026 will continue to maintain a more proactive stance; the central government will allocate 100 billion yuan to support fiscal-financial coordination to boost domestic demand; innovative policy tools for fiscal-financial coordination to boost domestic demand will be established, focusing on two key areas: household consumption and private investment; special funds for fiscal-financial coordination to boost domestic demand at the 100-billion-yuan level can benefit credit at the trillion-yuan level.

Spot Market:

On March 9, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 1,600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 7,250 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -300-400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

After the morning open, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) plunged immediately, hitting a low of 132,000 yuan/mt, then rebounded sharply. As of the morning close, it was at 137,380 yuan/mt, up 0.47%.

A stronger US dollar index, coupled with risk-off sentiment triggered by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, weighed on base metal prices. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price is expected to move sideways within 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt.