SMM Tin Morning Update on March 9, 2026:
Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract stayed fluctuate rangebound in the night session, closed at 393,190 yuan/mt, up 0.01%.
Macro: (1) The Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress held an economy-themed press conference today (the 6th). Zheng Shanjie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said there was a solid foundation for achieving this year’s economic growth target, and the issue could be viewed from at least three aspects. First, in terms of overall economic size, China’s economy last year already exceeded 140 trillion, reaching a new level. The “14th Five-Year Plan” was also considered to have concluded successfully, and it should be said that we delivered a report card that exceeded expectations from all sides. Second, in terms of innovation capability, our innovation achievements and major breakthroughs drew global attention and were evident to all. This showed stronger momentum for our development, and these innovation achievements also benefited people’s lives. Third, institutional strengths were fully leveraged, and we responded to risks and challenges from all sides with resolve, flexibility, and effectiveness. These super-large scale and size, innovative vitality and breakthroughs, as well as advantages in systems and mechanisms, gave us the confidence and conviction to address risks from all sides and market fluctuations, and to achieve our established targets and expected targets. (2) JPMorgan issued a research report stating that BYD (01211.HK) recently launched its second-generation blade battery, announced an expansion of its fast-charging network, and introduced 10 new all-electric/plug-in hybrid car models across its brands, which were expected to begin deliveries in April or May. The bank believed BYD’s sales would rebound quarter on quarter from about 700,000 units in Q1 this year to 1.1 million to 1.2 million units in Q2. The bank believed investors’ next focus would be the rebound in store foot traffic around the Beijing auto show on April 24. The bank maintained its target price at HK$110 and its rating at “Overweight”.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: In March, most smelters were expected to gradually resume production and operations, ending their holiday status. (2) Demand side: Downstream purchasing was relatively cautious. Downstream enterprises were set to gradually resume production and operations, but orders were mediocre.
Spot market: SHFE tin prices showed a pattern of wide swings at elevated levels. Early in the week, supported by recovering macro sentiment and supply concerns, the most-traded contract price once rose, but later, as macro sentiment faded, expectations for an overseas supply recovery strengthened, and capital flows shifted, prices quickly pulled back from highs and saw a sharp drop. After that, futures entered a consolidation phase following the decline, with overall volatility significantly intensifying. In the tin ingot spot market, trading followed price fluctuations, showing a pattern of first weakening, then strengthening, and then turning subdued. When prices plunged into a low range, market trading was active and downstream enterprises restocked in a concentrated manner on dips; however, when prices rebounded and returned to high levels, purchase willingness was significantly suppressed, and the market returned to a wait-and-see stance. Downstream enterprises mostly focused on digesting existing inventory, with only limited rigid demand following up, and overall trading was sluggish as high prices weighed on the market.
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