Macro Sentiment Shift and Tight-Balance Game, Price Center May Move Downward [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, March 9, 2026

Last week, the tin market saw wide swings at elevated levels. Prices at home and abroad moved wildly under the influence of multiple macro factors, and the most-traded SHFE tin contract, after an earlier surge, pulled back markedly from highs. From a macro perspective, the US February ISM services and manufacturing PMI data were strong, but price pressures intensified, complicating market expectations for the US Fed’s interest rate cut path. The US dollar received short-term support. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and diverted market funds, causing macro sentiment to switch repeatedly and amplifying tin price fluctuations. From the supply and demand fundamentals, the market maintained a tight balance structure, and supply-side expectations showed signs of repair: progress was made in addressing the dewatering issue in deep Myanmar ore tunnels, and market expectations for a supply recovery there became more stable. The sentiment premium previously injected by geopolitical conflicts was gradually unwound, while Indonesia’s exports gradually recovered in scale, and domestic smelters are expected to gradually resume production in March. Demand-side recovery was relatively slow. Although downstream solder, electronics, and other enterprises resumed work one after another after the holiday, follow-up end-user orders have not shown a clear increase. Persistently high prices continued to suppress enterprises’ willingness to stockpile, with most enterprises focusing on digesting pre-holiday inventory. Overall spot market transactions were sluggish, and actual procurement demand has yet to effectively start. Overall, in the short term, tin prices are heavily driven by macro funds and sentiment; amid the contradiction between expectations of supply repair and weak follow-through in real demand, the price center may gradually move lower. SHFE tin prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term, and may enter a consolidation phase after the earlier decline. If subsequent prices fail to rebound and hold above key levels, the center of the most-traded contract may continue to shift lower. Investors should closely monitor downstream actual work-resumption progress, the strength of restocking demand, and substantive changes on the supply side in Myanmar, Indonesia, and other regions.