Non-Farm Payrolls Data Shifts Fed Rate Cut Probabilities; March Cut Now Less Likely

Published: Mar 8, 2026 20:29

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[SMM Aluminum Flash] After the release of the non-farm payrolls data, according to CME “US Fed Watch”: the probability that the US Fed will deliver a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by March was 4.4% (4.7% before the release), and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 95.6% (95.3% before the release). The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by April was 19.5% (14% before the release), the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 79.7% (85.5% before the release), and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point interest rate cut was 0.7% (0.5% before the release). By June, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut was 40% (31.5% before the release).

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