[NPI Daily Review] Firm Costs Support NPI Prices; Stainless Steel Under Pressure Limits Upside Room

The European Commission quietly published Correcting Regulation (EU) 2026/1740 on July 31, correcting technical errors in the CBAM default values published on December 31, 2025 — seven months after companies first raised complaints — with no press release and only a hidden note in the Official Journal. Critics note that despite ongoing errors and logical inconsistencies, DG TAXUD maintained that compliance obligations remained in force regardless, effectively making companies pay for official mistakes. The next substantive review of CBAM default values is scheduled by December 2027. Separately, a new PwC study concludes that in every modelled scenario, neither the blast furnace nor the DRI route for European primary steel production is economically viable beyond 2040, with green hydrogen availability critically insufficient — Salzgitter and Saarstahl have secured only 5–6% of annual requirements, while other major producers have abandoned decarbonisation plans entirely. PwC recommends that if European steel capacity is retained for security of supply reasons, scrap-based secondary steel production is the only economically viable basis for doing so.

Prices for AISI 304 stainless steel cold-rolled coils edged higher across Asian markets, supported by upstream mill price hikes and increased spot market activity, with cost factors underpinning prices despite sluggish end-buyer demand. Chinese export offers rose approximately US$30/ton week-on-week, driven primarily by climbing raw material costs and improved procurement from Southeast Asia. However, elevated domestic inventory in China continued to exert downward pressure on spot prices. On the raw materials front, Indonesian NPI prices edged up largely due to new export inspection regulations implemented by Indonesian customs, which have disrupted the flow of nickel product exports.

India's leading stainless steel producer Jindal Stainless reported a 7.6% YoY increase in consolidated net profit to Rs 769 crore for Q1 FY2027, with revenue from operations growing 10.5% to Rs 11,279 crore, driven by higher realizations and a richer product mix. However, finished goods sales volumes declined 7.3% to approximately 580,800 tonnes as industrial gas shortages caused by geopolitical conflict restricted production and reduced capacity utilization to 68–70%. The company said domestic demand remained healthy and maintained its annual volume growth guidance of 7–9%, while planning to offset reduced European exports by targeting alternative markets including Japan and Brazil.