Macro sentiment retreats amid expectations of supply recovery the most-traded SHFE tin contract falls over 7% [SMM Tin Noon Commentary]

On the morning of March 3, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin contract continued its downward trend from the night session, fluctuating in the doldrums during the early trading and closing at 414,990 yuan/mt in the afternoon, down 7.52%. In the overseas market, LME three-month tin futures fell and then rebounded to consolidate, temporarily quoted at $52,505/mt, down 0.73%.

This round of significant correction in tin prices was mainly influenced by two factors: one is the shift in macro sentiment, with market funds focusing more on mainstream sectors; the other is the expectations for the recovery of overseas supply. After progress was made on the water extraction issue in Wa State, the market's expectations for the pace of production resumptions in Myanmar stabilized, and the emotional premium injected due to geopolitical events gradually dissipated. However, it should be noted that the structural feature of a tight balance in global tin supply and demand has not fundamentally changed, and long-term prospects still provide support, limiting the downside room to some extent. This morning, the most-traded contract stabilized after probing lower, with a narrower fluctuation range, and the market remained stagnant near key price levels.

In terms of spot, downstream enterprises gradually returned around the Lantern Festival, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly this morning. Some enterprises that did not restock during the pre-holiday window released a small amount of purchasing demand, showing moderate interest in inquiries. However, as the market direction remains unclear, with mixed bullish and bearish sentiments, enterprises generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude, following up with small orders and prioritizing order fulfillment, remaining cautious overall.

Regarding inventory, SHFE tin warrants had accumulated to a relatively high level previously. As downstream enterprises resumed operations, inventories began to flow into the market gradually. Subsequently, attention needs to be paid to the matching degree between the speed of inventory digestion and the pace of demand release.

In the short term, under the dual influence of the ebbing macro sentiment and the repair of supply expectations, tin prices entered a correction phase, expected to maintain an in-the-doldrums pattern, with the price center likely to move downward gradually. Continued attention should be given to the real strength of demand after downstream enterprises resume work, as well as the actual progress of production resumptions in Myanmar and Indonesia's export quota situation.