[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices drop slightly on March 2, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate sharply

Published: Mar 2, 2026 13:42

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SMM Nickel News on March 2:

Macro and Market News:

(1) Iran Situation: Trump said the new Iranian leadership wants to resume negotiations, and he has agreed to dialogue. Military action against Iran could last for four weeks.

(2) The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the government work report.

Spot Market:

On March 2, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 1,150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums and discounts, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 7,150 yuan/mt, down 700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for domestic mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -700-300 yuan/mt, showing a decline.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract fluctuated rangebound in the morning session, closing at 139,010 yuan/mt with a decrease of 0.26% by the end of the morning session.

Over the weekend, the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, leading to a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and market sentiment quickly turned risk-averse, causing a slight correction in nickel prices. The medium and long-term logic of supply tightening at the mine end remains unchanged, and it is expected that the most-traded SHFE nickel contract will continue to oscillate around the 140,000 yuan/mt level in the short term.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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