In 2026, the proportion of long-term contracts for copper cathode has significantly decreased compared to previous years, indicating a structural change in the global trade pattern of copper cathode. With fewer volumes locked in long-term contracts, more supplies have entered the spot market, leading to a notable increase in price volatility and uncertainty in flow directions.
Currently, the purchase prices for resources from Africa and South America remain high, with some long-term contracts and spot offers still at relatively elevated levels. However, there has been a clear shift in macroeconomic conditions and inventory structures. Recently, visible inventories globally have seen a continuous and significant buildup, with the SHFE, LME, and COMEX all maintaining a Contango structure, indicating ample near-term supply and low spot premiums.
Against this backdrop, regional price spreads have narrowed, and there is a lack of clear arbitrage opportunities in import and export windows, making it difficult for traders to find ideal sales destinations. The mismatch between high purchase costs and low spot premiums has slowed down the sales pace of some supplies, resulting in a subdued trading atmosphere.
Market participants expect that, at current price levels, invisible inventories in ports or bonded areas in regions such as Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia may continue to accumulate, with some resources potentially being temporarily stranded in overseas markets.
Looking ahead, if copper prices remain high and global inventories continue to grow, the spot market will struggle to form an effective destocking driver, and the premium structure may face further downward pressure. Before end-use consumption shows a marked improvement, spot premiums are more likely to fall than rise.
