26. February 2026
The gold price has recently worked its way back toward $5,200 per ounce, but remains noticeably below the all-time highs from January near $5,600. In this consolidation phase, voices in the market are increasingly questioning the longer-term momentum. A recent analysis from the precious metals sector, however, sets a historical benchmark: Compared with previous rally phases, the current bull market is still relatively “young” – and gold and silver could, in principle, have further upside potential in 2026.
In her new precious metals report, a market analyst at MKS PAMP compared five gold bull markets over the past 50 years. Her conclusion: The current environment looks more like a mid-cycle phase, not a late stage. The cycle has reportedly been running for 39 months; during that time, gold has gained more than 200%, silver around 350%, while the US dollar has lost 13%. From this combination, the analyst concludes that the performance to date is impressive, but historically does not necessarily have to mark the “end of the road.”
Gold price in historical comparison: “mid-cycle” profile instead of late phase
The analyst advances the thesis that the current performance falls into the “mid-cycle” category. She links this assessment to a hypothetical scenario: If gold were to mirror the average duration and performance of past cycles, this would imply a price target of $6,750 by October – timed around the US midterm elections. This statement is explicitly framed as a historical reflection, not a forecast in the narrow sense; it is primarily intended to illustrate how much upside room earlier cycles still had at comparable stages.
As classic drivers for precious metals, the report continues to cite familiar factors: the prospect of falling interest rates, geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty, and a weaker dollar. At the same time, the analyst emphasizes that this cycle differs from previous bull markets in key respects – particularly due to structural shifts in the macroeconomic and political environment.
Structural change as an additional driver: “system hedge” instead of real-rate correlation
According to the analyst, the current macro backdrop is shaped by several overarching trends. These include greater fiscal fragility than in previous cycles: high debt levels and persistent deficits are reinforcing an environment that many market participants describe as “fiscal dominance” – i.e., a situation in which fiscal constraints increasingly override monetary and financial policy.
At the same time, she points to significantly more pronounced political polarization in the US, growing global wealth inequality, and a changed geopolitical balance of power in which China, as an economic factor, is substantially larger than previous US rivals in the 1970s and 1980s. In this context, the argument goes, gold has increasingly decoupled from its traditional correlation with real interest rates and is evolving more into a kind of “hedge against the system” – i.e., a more broadly defined risk hedge.
This perspective explains why gold remains stable at times despite shifting interest-rate and inflation signals: No single factor dominates; rather, it is a combination of confidence, risk, and structural themes.
Central banks and retail: Two demand anchors – institutions still cautious
For investment demand, the report highlights two groups that are currently seen as providing support. First, central banks, which, according to the analyst, serve as a “core anchor.” Their net purchases would, de facto, underpin a higher “floor price” level. The catch-up need in emerging markets is particularly emphasized: The top 20 central banks in emerging markets reportedly hold a combined total of around 7,500 tonnes of gold. To reach the level of average gold allocation in developed countries (the G10 average is cited as the reference), around 22,000 tonnes would be required, according to the report – a magnitude she equates to six years of annual primary production.
Second, the report focuses on the retail investor market, which has become more diversified in recent years. Examples cited include robust physical demand – visible, among other things, in retail sales of gold products – and growing interest in gold-backed tokens on digital trading platforms. A key term here is fractional ownership: Smaller denominations and digital representation options lower barriers to entry and broaden the pool of potential buyers.
At the same time, the analyst notes that gold remains underweighted among institutional investors. This restraint is interpreted as a potential buffer: If the allocation of institutional portfolios changes, additional capital inflows could emerge – without necessarily requiring new narratives.
Outlook: Dollar as the spark – silver possibly closer to the end of the cycle
For the remainder of the year, the analyst sees the US dollar as a possible trigger for the next upward move. The dollar’s decline in this cycle, at -13%, has been comparatively mild; from this she concludes that, with new catalysts, there is still room for further dollar weakness – which typically supports precious metals.
On the gold vs. silver ratio, the report remains nuanced. On the one hand, silver is described as having performed strongly; on the other, it is emphasized that its pace more closely resembles the 2008–2011 cycle (there: +360% in 33 months). From this, the analyst concludes that silver – measured by duration and speed – could be closer to the end of its cyclical run than gold. Accordingly, gold could continue to outperform on a relative basis.
As factors that could slow the gold rally, the report cites three potential headwinds: a sustained easing of geopolitical risks, continued strength of the US dollar, and a political shift in the US that materially changes the fiscal direction.
Overall, the analysis paints a picture in which the gold price, despite consolidation, is not considered “fully stretched.” The focus is less on short-term impulses and more on the question of whether the combination of a structural macro environment, central bank demand, broader retail access, and potential institutional catch-up can carry the cycle forward.
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