Brazil's Large Copper Mine Project Makes New Progress, LME Copper and SHFE Copper Slightly Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, February 27, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,317/mt, fluctuated rangebound after opening, then touched a low of $13,168/mt before the price center rose to a high of $13,348/mt, and finally closed at $13,259/mt, down 0.68%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, down 809 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 316,000 lots, down 4,795 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall performance mainly characterized by long position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 102,670 yuan/mt, fluctuated downward after opening to touch a low of 101,780 yuan/mt, then the price center rose to a high of 102,880 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 102,550 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume reached 55,000 lots, down 51,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 186,000 lots, up 1,437 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall performance mainly characterized by short position increase.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) Ero Copper's Furnas project in Pará, Brazil, a joint venture with Vale Base Metals, achieved key development progress. The project recently released its first preliminary economic assessment (PEA). According to the PEA, the Furnas project will be a large-scale mining operation with four independent mining areas, featuring a mine life of 24 years. During this period, it is expected to produce approximately 1.2 million mt of copper, 2 million ounces of gold, and 9 million ounces of silver. The assessment indicates an average annual copper production of 108,000 mt during the first 15 years of operation.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On February 26, SMM's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current month 2603 contract were quoted at a discount of 320-150 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 235 yuan/mt, down 55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM's #1 copper cathode price ranged from 101,380 to 102,210 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2603 contract gradually declined, then stabilized and rebounded. It opened at 102,490 yuan/mt, dropped slightly after opening before rising, then fell again from 102,550 yuan/mt to a low of 101,650 yuan/mt before starting to rise. It subsequently fluctuated between 102,260 yuan/mt and 102,500 yuan/mt, closing at 102,490 yuan/mt. The contango spread between nearby months ranged from 420 to 350 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper's current month contract ranged from a loss of 610 to 500 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, spot discounts for SHFE copper are expected to remain under pressure. Although intraday procurement and sales sentiment rebounded slightly, with some downstream enterprises having started to resume production and gradually entering the market to inquire and purchase, the overall market remains constrained by sustained supply increases. From a market structure perspective, the contango spread between nearby months maintained in the 420-350 yuan/mt range, and suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses persisted, continuing to divert spot liquidity. Meanwhile, both imported and domestic copper arrivals continued, while downstream operations have not fully resumed, leading to a supply-demand mismatch that pushed social inventory to continue its buildup trend. According to SMM, social inventory of electrolytic copper in mainstream domestic regions continued its post-holiday accumulation trend, with the total reaching 531,700 mt, at a historically high level. Additionally, the outflow of unmatched delivery warrants will further pressure spot premiums/discounts. Overall, the market is in the initial stage of post-holiday supply-demand rebalancing, with supply pressure dominating. Spot discounts are expected to continue under pressure today.
(2) Guangdong: On February 25, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 270-100 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 185 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from yesterday. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 350-310 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 330 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,185 yuan/mt, up 260 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,040 yuan/mt, up 275 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, downstream production resumptions led to an increase in procurement volume, suppliers actively held prices firm and boosted shipments, and overall trading activity continued to improve.
(3) Imported copper: On February 25, warrant prices were $45-57/mt, QP March, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $42-54/mt, QP March, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $15-23/mt, QP March, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late February and early March.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on February 25, the futures closing price was 102,100 yuan/mt, down 280 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average spot premium/discount was -235 yuan/mt, down 55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On February 25, copper scrap prices remained flat MoM, with bare bright copper prices in Guangdong at 90,000-90,200 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,854 yuan/mt, down 335 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,295 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, many secondary copper rod enterprises planned to have workers return to work starting from the eighth day of the Chinese New Year before the holiday, but post-holiday performance showed that many secondary copper rod enterprises indicated workers only began returning on the tenth day. Including the time for furnace heating and feeding, the earliest finished products would not be available until early March, with most secondary copper rod enterprises delaying production resumptions by 4-5 days compared to pre-holiday plans.
Prices: On the macro front, U.S.-Iran negotiations made good progress, but differences remain between the two sides, and the market is closely watching the negotiation process and uncertainty around tariff policies. In addition, continuous LME inventory buildup kept copper prices under pressure. On the fundamentals side, supply side, imported cargoes continued to arrive, while domestic supply arrivals remained stable; demand side, downstream production gradually resumed, and consumption saw a slight recovery. Inventory side, as of February 26, social inventory of copper in mainstream regions across China increased 4.56% WoW from Tuesday. Overall, copper prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]