[Analysis by SMM] Analysis of the Divergence in Manganese Ore Markets at Northern and Southern Ports After the Holiday

After the holiday, the manganese ore market at domestic north and south ports showed a divergence. By port: at Tianjin Port, transaction prices remained firm and the market operated steadily; at Qinzhou Port, performance was weak, with few inquiries and overall sluggish transactions.

Specifically:

I. Tianjin Port: Transaction prices are firm, and the market is in a warming-up phase.

Manganese ore transaction prices at Tianjin Port have remained firm, supported mainly by three factors:

First, stable downstream demand. Very few enterprises in main SiMn alloy production areas like Inner Mongolia and Ningxia reduced or halted production. Post-holiday production pace remained steady, but most enterprises are currently consuming pre-holiday manganese ore inventory, only making tentative inquiries at the port. The market is in a warming-up state, with pronounced wait-and-see sentiment among buyers and sellers, keeping manganese ore prices stable without significant fluctuations.Second, mild port inventory pressure. Tianjin Port's manganese ore inventory is at a medium historical level, with relatively controllable pressure. Sellers show little willingness to sell, and there is basically no discount selling, further supporting price firmness.Third, firm overseas manganese ore offers to China for March increased, coupled with frequent news from South African mines. Rising direct costs and expectations of higher future import prices keep sellers' offers firm.

II. Qinzhou Port: Transactions nearly stalled, sellers await downstream resumption.

Post-holiday, Qinzhou Port saw almost no actual manganese ore transactions, with low market activity. The core reason is sustained pressure on SiMn industry profits in the south, leading to weak manganese ore demand: higher direct production costs like electricity and freight in southern regions, combined with low current SiMn market prices, significantly compress enterprise profit margins. The number of operating enterprises is limited, the overall market volume is relatively small, and sensitivity to cost and price changes is higher. After the Chinese New Year, electricity tariffs in main production areas like Guangxi and Guizhou rose, further increasing production costs. Most SiMn and FeMn furnaces halted during the holiday, considering the risk of losses upon resumption, chose not to restart; a few operating enterprises also adopted reduced workload modes, prioritizing consumption of pre-holiday manganese ore inventory, with almost no inquiries for spot port ore. Port sellers face difficulty moving inventory and indicate they will wait for the post-holiday production resumption of downstream enterprises in Yunnan during the "Golden March, Silver April" peak season before adjusting sales strategies.

Overall market summary and outlook:

In general, post-holiday, both north and south port manganese ore markets focused on consuming pre-holiday inventory, with overall low transaction activity. Looking ahead to the subsequent market , manganese ore prices have limited downside room: on one hand, import costs continue to rise, forming a bottom support; on the other hand, expectations for the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" remain, which is expected to gradually drive demand release. However, it should be noted that terminal steel mills have not yet started large-scale tenders for SiMn, and the demand for SiMn, as well as the transmission of demand to manganese ore, still needs to be verified. In the short term, the manganese ore market is likely to fluctuate at highs.