Spot cargo transaction sentiment rises, east and central China markets show divergent trends [SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review]

SMM February 26 News:

In the morning session, SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated downward, with the price center higher than the previous trading day. Influenced by the spot-futures price spread and the price spread between futures contracts, some traders entered the market to build positions, leading to a continuous rise in spot quotations since the opening. The mainstream quotations concentrated around the average to 30 yuan/mt. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the east China market was 2.81, up 0.15 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.7, up 0.08 MoM. SMM A00 aluminum closed at 235,200 yuan/mt, up 1,400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 1,800 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract, an increase of 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Today, SHFE aluminum prices rose, and traders holding stocks in the central China market showed a clear willingness to sell at high prices. However, during the initial period after the Chinese New Year holiday, downstream processing enterprises had not fully consumed their inventories, coupled with high aluminum prices, resulting in low restocking willingness. Overall, the market's trading situation was poor, with trading volume lower than the previous two days. Ultimately, the actual transaction price in the central China market fell from a premium of 10 yuan/mt over the central China price before the opening to a discount of 40 yuan/mt. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.6, up 0.06 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.13, down 0.03 MoM. SMM central China closed at 234,100 yuan/mt, up 1,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 2,900 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract, a decrease of 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between Henan and Shanghai was -1,100 yuan/mt, widening by 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

In terms of inventory, today, the aluminum ingot inventory in the main consumption areas increased by 26,000 mt MoM. Affected by the Chinese New Year break, all three regions showed an inventory buildup. In the short term, post-Chinese New Year, aluminum ingots continued to experience seasonal inventory buildup, and spot premiums/discounts are expected to remain under pressure.