SHFE Tin Contract Was in the Doldrums at High Levels Today, Macro Sentiment Persisted but Spot Cargo Support Was Weak [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the morning of February 26, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin contract was in the doldrums, closing at 414,980 yuan/mt in the midday session, up 3.52% from the previous trading day's settlement price. On the LME, three-month tin also moved weakly, quoted at $53,050/mt, down 1.6%.

Spot side, prices again broke above the 410,000-yuan mark, further strengthening downstream enterprises' wait-and-see sentiment towards high-priced raw materials. Most enterprises chose to digest pre-holiday inventory and postponed restocking. After the holiday, spot circulation remained tight, while inter-provincial transport had not fully recovered. Tight transport capacity pushed up short-haul logistics costs, which also hindered spot transactions to some extent. Warrant side, SHFE tin warrants totaled 11,738 mt yesterday, at a relatively high level, reflecting that previously shipped cargoes had not been effectively absorbed by the market. Although spot circulation appeared tight, actual supply elasticity remained.

Short term, the market is still in a post-holiday recovery transition phase, with prices more influenced by macro sentiment than real demand, warranting caution against correction risks. Going forward, monitor whether macro sentiment can gain sustained support from real demand follow-through, as well as downstream enterprises' actual purchase willingness and inventory digestion pace after full work resumption.