During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, China’s manganese tetroxide market maintained a weak tone, characterized by sluggish trading, stable prices, and stalemated supply and demand. On the cost side, electrolytic manganese prices bottomed out at low levels with limited upward momentum. On the demand side, lithium manganate producers had completed pre-holiday restocking and focused on inventory digestion. Coupled with the holiday market shutdown, price support was further weakened. Overall, the holiday served as a period of weak consolidation. After resuming production in March, manganese tetroxide prices are likely to extend a slight decline due to weaker raw material costs and sluggish downstream demand.
I. Holiday Market Performance: Shutdown, Nominally Stable Prices
With almost no actual trading during the holiday, market quotations remained at levels seen after the pre-holiday mild decline, without obvious fluctuations. Such stability lacked fundamental support and was merely passive price stabilization during the holiday, failing to mask the weak market pattern.
Meanwhile, industry inventories stayed at a reasonable level. Suppliers maintained orderly inventory control before the holiday, with no significant inventory accumulation. There was no active selling or price-cutting during the holiday, and spot supply remained sufficient. The supply-demand stalemate continued without substantial improvement.
II. Key Drivers: Weakening Cost Support & Sluggish Demand
Cost Side: Electrolytic Manganese Bottoms Out, Support Insufficient
During the Spring Festival, the electrolytic manganese market also saw muted trading and stable bottoming prices, with no signs of rebound, providing limited cost support for manganese tetroxide. A weak trend is expected to persist in the short term, further eroding the cost floor of manganese tetroxide and paving the way for potential post-holiday price drops.
Demand Side: Lithium Manganate Focuses on Destocking, No New Demand
Major downstream lithium manganate producers had finished pre-holiday stocking and were digesting inventories, with only sporadic small-volume restocking that provided negligible support. Current lithium manganate inventories are at reasonable levels, suggesting no large-scale restocking in the near term after the holiday, and demand is unlikely to recover quickly.
III. Outlook: Pressure After Resumption, Prices Likely to Edge Down
As the industry gradually resumes production, the weak manganese tetroxide market is expected to persist, with prices likely to extend slight declines for three main reasons:
First, cost support remains weak as electrolytic manganese prices lack rebound momentum, while sulfuric acid and other raw materials move steadily, leaving producers with little confidence to support prices.Second, downstream demand recovers slowly: lithium manganate continues destocking with weak purchasing interest, providing limited support.Third, supply-side pressure persists: producers will gradually resume full production, while demand lags behind supply recovery. Some holders may cut prices to avoid inventory risks, further weighing on prices.
In the short term (1–2 weeks after the holiday), trading will gradually resume but prices will remain under pressure. For the medium to long term, close attention will be paid to electrolytic manganese price movements, lithium manganate destocking progress, and downstream restocking after resumption. Better-than-expected demand may ease the decline; otherwise, prices will remain in a weak downward range.
