[SMM Analysis] Review and Post-Holiday Outlook of the High-Grade NPI Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday

Published: Feb 24, 2026 18:58

Save

[SMM Analysis: Review and Post-Holiday Outlook of the High-Grade NPI Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday] Looking ahead, from a macro perspective, influenced by Indonesia's quota tightening policy, nickel prices are expected to enter a pattern of high-level wide swings after the Chinese New Year holiday, which will drive high-grade NPI prices.

According to SMM, during the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic high-grade NPI market showed weak performance on both the supply and demand sides, with overall trading being sluggish.

Supply side, domestic smelters generally implemented production cuts during the holiday, leading to a significant decrease in trading activity and a noticeable contraction in high-grade NPI supply. Additionally, prior to the holiday, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set the 2026 nickel ore RKAB mining quota at around 260 million mt, significantly boosting market sentiment regarding tight supply. Demand side, downstream stainless steel enterprises had completed stockpiling before the holiday, and coupled with holiday shutdowns, procurement demand for high-grade NPI saw a significant pullback, resulting in overall sluggish market trading.

Looking ahead, from a macro perspective, influenced by Indonesia's quota tightening policy, nickel prices are expected to enter a pattern of high-level wide swings after the Chinese New Year holiday, which will drive high-grade NPI prices. Cost side, due to the quota tightening news and the impact of the tailings landslide accident at the Indonesian IMIP park, nickel ore prices have risen, and high-grade NPI costs are expected to continue increasing, also providing support for high-grade NPI prices. Overall, under the dual effects of support from high refined nickel prices and rising nickel ore costs, high-grade NPI prices are expected to receive strong support, and the market trading center is anticipated to steadily move upward.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

1 hour ago

[SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] April 17: Downstream Purchasing Sentiment Rebounded, Nickel Salt Prices Rose Significantly

On April 17, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate rose significantly.

1 hour ago

5 hours ago

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU Steel Safeguard Reached Amid Indonesia's Nickel Pricing Overhaul

EU reached a trilogue agreement on new steel safeguards, featuring an 18.3 million tonne quota, a 50% out-of-quota tariff, and "melt-and-pour" rules. However, critics highlight a loophole for slabs and potential WTO compliance issues. Simultaneously, Indonesia's complete overhaul of its nickel pricing architecture is expected to hike downstream production costs for stainless steel and EVs by over 12%. Following these shifts, base metals surged on both LME and SHFE, with nickel leading gains by nearly 4%. Market volatility remains high as the industry adapts to these structural cost increases and trade barriers.

5 hours ago

20 hours ago

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] April 16, 2026: Stainless Steel Market Highlights

On April 16, 2026, the stainless steel market saw major shifts. The EU's move to cut quotas by 47% and double tariffs to 50% in July triggered panic buying in Europe. India extended BIS certification until late September to ensure supply flexibility. Supported by Indonesia’s HPM formula adjustments, export prices remain firm, with slight gains in Foshan 304 spot prices. Rising logistics costs due to Middle East tensions and new trade barriers are collectively pushing up global trade expenses.

20 hours ago