[SMM Analysis] Review of the Lithium Ore Market During the 2026 Chinese Lunar New Year Holiday and Post-Holiday Outlook

Ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year, the overall lithium ore market exhibited a stabilized and wait-and-see trend with light trading. Overseas lithium ore market prices showed signs of a slight recovery. According to SMM data, on February 13, the price range for Australian spodumene concentrate was $1,950 to $2,060/tonnes, with an average price of $2,005/tonnes.

On the supply side, overall supply expectations for the overseas lithium ore market in February remained stable, but spot circulation was somewhat stalemated. From late January to early February, driven by the domestic main lithium carbonate futures contract turning from a fall to a rise, the price-supporting sentiment among overseas miners and traders strengthened significantly, and their willingness to sell at low prices decreased notably. Meanwhile, as downstream pre-holiday restocking was largely completed, coupled with the suppressive effect of high quotes, trading in the spot market became visibly light, and downstream acceptance of high-priced ore remained limited. Before the holiday, lithium salt plants mainly executed long-term contracts, resulting in sluggish spot retail transactions. The market mainly engaged in a tug-of-war surrounding long-term contract pricing mechanisms and psychological expectations.

During the Spring Festival, affected by the domestic holiday, port customs clearance, loading and unloading, and inland transportation were basically suspended, bringing the spot market into a seasonal quiet period.

Looking ahead, on the supply side, major overseas miners are maintaining a normal shipping pace. Some top-tier miners, such as PLS announcing the mid-year restart of its Ngungaju plant, have released signals of resuming low-cost capacity, demonstrating the cross-cyclical operational resilience of overseas mines. On the demand side, as February coincides with a concentrated maintenance period for domestic lithium salt plants, the consumption of concentrate has seen a phased decline in the short term. However, with the approach of downstream production resumption in March post-holiday, the rigid raw material procurement demand from salt plants is expected to be gradually released, and market activity is likely to rebound.