[SMM Daily Review on Coking Coal and Coke]
Coking Coal Market:
The quoted price of low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen stands at 1,570 yuan/mt, while in Tangshan, it is 1,450 yuan/mt.
During the Chinese New Year, the domestic coking coal market remained in the doldrums. In terms of supply, most private coal mines in China were shut down for the holiday during the Chinese New Year, typically for over 10 days, leading to a significant reduction in coal production. State-owned coal mines had shorter holidays, usually around 3 days, with only a slight decrease in production. Based on holiday schedules, most coal mines are expected to resume production by the latest after the Lantern Festival, with a gradual return to normal production in March. On the buyer side, the market was largely inactive during the Chinese New Year, with online auctions for coking coal suspended and steel mills halting tender purchases, resulting in a sluggish market. Looking ahead, after the Chinese New Year holiday, the resumption of production at local coal mines is expected to accelerate. However, coke and steel enterprises may adopt a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with generally moderate purchasing enthusiasm. Coal mines are facing certain inventory pressure. Therefore, after the holiday, coke prices are expected to be generally stable with slight fall, with expectations of price reductions.
Coke Market:
The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,790 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 1,650 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,440 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (wet quenching) is 1,350 yuan/mt.
During the Chinese New Year, the domestic coke market performed steadily. In terms of supply, most coke enterprises maintained normal production with no significant changes in operating rates. However, hindered transportation during the Chinese New Year led to some inventory buildup of coke at certain coke enterprises. On the buyer side, affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, the operating rate of blast furnaces at downstream steel mills declined, resulting in reduced actual coke consumption. Meanwhile, steel consumption remained in the off-season during the Chinese New Year, with end-use demand basically stagnant. This increased the sales pressure on steel mills, leading them to adopt a more cautious approach to coke procurement and showing weaker intentions for active restocking. Looking ahead, after the Chinese New Year, logistics and transportation will gradually resume. However, short-term end-use demand from downstream sectors is expected to remain sluggish. Additionally, most coke enterprises have experienced inventory buildup during the Chinese New Year holiday and will need time to deplete their inventories. Therefore, after the holiday, coke prices are expected to be in the doldrums, with strong expectations of price reductions.
[SMM Steel]
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