[SMM Analysis] Review of the Indonesian Stainless Steel Market During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday and Post-Holiday Outlook

Wishing everyone a Happy New Year and a prosperous start to work!

During the Chinese New Year holiday, the Indonesian stainless steel market overall maintained stable operation. On the production side, mainstream steel mills' smelting and cold rolling supporting production lines all maintained normal production pace, without shutdowns, ensuring continuous resource supply; on the procurement and sales side, although mainstream order pace slowed down due to the holiday factor, scattered orders from overseas markets still maintained operations, keeping certain market liquidity.

Looking ahead to the post-holiday market, on the cost side, market concerns over uncertainty regarding Indonesian RKAB approvals are rising, with expectations of quota cuts, coupled with the impact of the rainy season, nickel ore raw material supply is tight, and the cost support logic is strong; on the supply side, continuous production during the holiday has stocked ample spot resources for post-holiday market recovery, and with logistics resuming, shipments will gradually normalize; on the demand side, as domestic and overseas terminals resume work successively after the holiday, restocking demand is expected to be gradually released, and with the continuity of overseas orders, market activity is anticipated to rebound quickly.

Overall, post-holiday, the Indonesian stainless steel market is expected to see orderly supply-demand linkage, and under the combined effect of expected RKAB quota reductions and cost support, prices are expected to stabilize and hold up well.