I. Tin Price Review During Chinese New Year
During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (15–23 February), SHFE tin was closed while LME tin fluctuated rangebound at highs.
Pre-holiday retreat after rapid rise: in the week before the holiday, tin prices rose sharply on three drivers—overseas macro easing expectations, tight domestic supply, and just-in-time restocking. On the last trading day (13 February), however, stronger-than-expected US CPI data reinforced “higher-for-longer” rate fears, the US dollar rebounded, downstream plants shut for the holiday, and risk-off capital left; the most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 365,400 yuan/mt, plunging 7.05% on the day.
Holiday rangebound moves: with SHFE closed, LME lacked a clear one-way catalyst. Demand side was in traditional off-season, leaving a “tight supply, weak demand” standoff. LME tin is expected to hover around key levels through the break.
II. Key Macro Events & Industry Updates
RKAB rule change: Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources reverted the RKAB (Work Plan & Budget) approval cycle from three years back to one, effective 2026. The shift forced some miners to re-submit in Q1, slowing exports temporarily.
Quota expectations vs. reality: the Indonesian Tin Exporters Association (AETI) said mid-January that the 2026 mine production quota is expected at about 60 kt; approvals are still under review.
Illegal mine crackdown: Jakarta previously ordered 1,000 illegal tin mines on Sumatra closed.
Geopolitics: supply-chain worries after earlier quakes in Myanmar linger, while the Bisie mine in the DRC remains disrupted by regional conflict. Macro-wise, volatile US inflation data and Trump-administration trade policy keep uncertainty elevated.
III. Post-holiday Outlook
Supply side: February’s Chinese New Year shutdowns and scheduled maintenance at most domestic smelters will cut tin ingot output. Myanmar ore imports may slowly recover, yet tighter Indonesian quota policy acts as a hard constraint.
Demand side: as traders and downstream solder, electronics and PV plants resume work, just-in-time procurement should gradually recover. Still, tin’s absolute price remains historically high, likely curbing downstream stockpiling willingness and intensity; the demand rebound pace may be modest.
After the holiday, SHFE tin is expected to stay in ahigh-level wide-swingpattern. Below, ore tightness and low inventory give solid support; above, high prices will visibly restrain physical uptake. Overall, the most-traded SHFE tin contract’s core trading range is projected at360,000–400,000 yuan/mt. Watch actual downstream restart speed, restocking strength, and the final shape of Indonesia’s export policy.
