【SMM PV News】 CPIA Forecasts Potential Decline in China's New PV Installations for 2026

Published: Feb 23, 2026 10:41

Save

Recently, based on data disclosed at the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) outlook seminar and subsequent institutional analysis, China's new PV installations in 2026 are expected to range between 180-240 GW. This represents a decline of 23.8%-42.8% compared to the 315 GW in 2025, potentially marking the first annual drop since 2019, driven by grid consumption pressures and feed-in tariff reforms. Nevertheless, the association noted that the average annual new capacity during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is projected at 238-287 GW. The long-term fundamentals of green energy development remain solid, and the industry will accelerate its transition towards intelligent, green, and integrated development.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

10 hours ago

SMM Analysis: China's unwrought cobalt imports fell 50% MoM in May 2026, exports rose 70% MoM

In May 2026, China’s unwrought cobalt imports were approximately 673 mt, down 50% MoM and up 3% YoY; unwrought cobalt exports were approximately 370 mt, up 70% MoM and down 88% YoY.

10 hours ago

[SMM Analysis: China's Cobalt Intermediate Products Imports Up 107% MoM in May 2026]

In May 2026, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products were approximately 2,584 mt in physical content, up 107% MoM and down 95% YoY, of which imports from DRC were approximately 2,066 mt in physical content, up 119% MoM and down 96% YoY.

10 hours ago

11 hours ago

Impact of the Ministry of Commerce Adding 10 US Entities to the Export Control List on Solid-State Batteries [SMM Analysis]

[SMM Analysis: Impact on Solid-state Batteries of the Ministry of Commerce Adding 10 US Entities to the Export Control List] On June 22, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement and, effective immediately, formally implemented the "Export Control List (June 22, 2026)," which includes 10 US entities. This export control measure has almost no direct impact on China's solid-state battery industry, but attention should be paid to the indirect link of the rare earth supply chain. (1) China already has export controls on high-end batteries with an energy density exceeding 300 Wh/kg (including semi-solid and all-solid-state), and this measure targeting specific entities is an extension of the existing control framework rather than a new restriction specifically aimed at the solid-state battery industry. (2) The solid-state battery industry is still in the development stage and has not yet generated a significant export demand.

11 hours ago