Mixed Macro Sentiments and High Inventory Pressures Keep Aluminum Prices Stagnant

Published: Feb 12, 2026 17:59

Save

SMM Feb. 12: Macro perspective, domestic macro sentiment was generally positive, while overseas expectations for interest rate cuts pulled back. Domestically, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that China's CPI rose 0.2% MoM and PPI rose 0.4% MoM in January, easing deflationary pressure. Overseas, US non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, and annual figures were revised down by 862,000. The market faced a contradiction between strong single-month data and downward historical revisions, pushing expectations for rate cuts to the second half of the year. US Fed officials struck a hawkish tone, favoring maintaining restrictive interest rates, while Trump continued to pressure the Fed.

Fundamentals, supply side: Domestically, aluminum projects in China and Indonesia steadily ramped up production, but overall February production pulled back MoM from January due to fewer calendar days. Domestically, with the Chinese New Year approaching, downstream demand for raw materials weakened marginally. Combined with high aluminum prices suppressing demand, downstream demand softened further, and enterprises' willingness for casting ingot increased significantly, lowering the proportion of liquid aluminum in February. Although warehouse withdrawals of aluminum ingot in major consumption areas increased YoY this week, social inventory built up by about 35,000 mt WoY from last Thursday.

Overall, bullish sentiment in the nonferrous metals market cooled, and coupled with high inventory pressure fundamentals, aluminum prices remained in the doldrums this week. Affected by the approaching delivery date, the SMM A00 aluminum premiums and discounts were reported at -160 yuan/mt this Thursday, narrowing by about 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Macro sentiment still lacked clear improvement, and high inventory continued to weigh on prices. SHFE aluminum is expected to remain in the doldrums after the Chinese New Year, trading in the range of 22,800–24,000 yuan/mt. LME aluminum is expected to trade between $3,080/mt and $3,180/mt. In addition, be alert to the potential impact of rising alumina prices on aluminum prices after the holiday.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

2 hours ago

Iranian Drones Strike US Military Targets in Kuwait and UAE, Hitting Aluminum Facilities Linked to F-35 Production

On April 5, the Iranian military issued a statement on April 4, saying that the Iranian military used drones to strike multiple US military targets in Kuwait and other Gulf countries on the same day. The report said that the targets also included aluminum industrial facilities in the United Arab Emirates. The United States and Israel have invested a lot of money in the aluminum industry in the United Arab Emirates, and use it to produce a variety of fighters, including the F-35 stealth fighter, as well as missiles, tanks, and armored vehicles.

2 hours ago

Eurasian Economic Commission Proposes Maintaining Anti-Dumping Duties on Chinese and Azerbaijani Aluminum Tape

On April 3, according to the China Trade Remedies Information Network, on April 2, 2026, the Internal Market Protection Department of the Eurasian Economic Commission issued the final disclosure of the first sunset review of the anti-dumping measures on aluminum tape originating in China and Azerbaijan. If the anti-dumping duties on the products involved in China and Azerbaijan are cancelled, the dumping of the products involved and the substantial damage caused by the dumping to the relevant industries of the Eurasian Economic Union will continue or recur. Therefore, it is recommended to maintain the anti-dumping tax determined in Announcement No. 115 of 2020 unchanged and continue to impose an anti-dumping tax on the products in question for a period of five years, of which the tax rate

2 hours ago

Shaanxi-Henan UHV DC Project, Final in "Three Exchanges Nine Direct," to Be Completed by 2028

On March 31, the National Grid announced that the Shaanxi-Henan ± 800 kV UHV DC project, the final project of the "three exchanges and nine direct" projects in the National "14th Five-Year" plan, with a total investment of 19 billion yuan.It starts in Yulin, Shaanxi, and ends in Kaifeng, Henan, passing through Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Henan provinces. The total length of the line is 728 kilometers, the transmission capacity is 8 million kilowatts, and it is planned to be completed and put into operation in 2028.

2 hours ago