Spot lead market transactions have entered a stagnant period, and social inventory of lead ingots has hit a new high in nearly five months. [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, touched a high of $1,998.5/mt during the Asian session before trending lower; it initially rose then fell during the European session, plunged to a low of $1,970/mt towards the close, and finally settled at $1,984/mt, down 0.53%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,700 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of 16,765 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before weakening, touched a low of 16,670 yuan/mt towards the close, and finally settled at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 0.03%.

On the Macro Front:

Trump: The US "must" reach a deal with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious". According to AXIOS: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said Trump may reach a good deal with Iran. US media: US Treasury Secretary agreed to have the Senate, rather than the Department of Justice, investigate Powell in exchange for the smooth nomination of the new US Fed chair.

China's Ministry of Commerce: China and the US maintained close communication at various levels through the economic and trade consultation mechanism. Ministry of Education: Vocational education will focus on adding new majors in areas such as the low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence. China's newly installed wind and solar power capacity exceeded 430 million kW in 2025, hitting a record high again. Passenger Car Association: Passenger NEV exports in January surged 103.6% YoY, accounting for 49.6% of passenger car exports. PBOC: On February 13, 2026, it will conduct 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations via fixed amount, interest rate tender, and multiple-price award method, with a maturity of 6 months.

:

As the Chinese New Year atmosphere intensified, some traders have halted operations for the holiday, while those still at work are waiting for the holiday, and few offers were heard in the market. More downstream enterprises were on holiday, basically halting purchases, with individual companies conducting final warehousing of previously arrived lead ingots. The spot market entered a standstill.

Inventory: On February 12, LME lead inventory fell 50 mt to 232,900 mt. As of February 12, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions hit a fresh five-month high again.

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

This week is the last week before the Chinese New Year. Enterprises across the lead industry chain entered the holiday one after another. In addition, the holiday prompted the return of migrant workers and reduced vehicle transport. Trading in the lead spot market also entered a standstill. More suppliers moved lead ingots from smelter plants to social warehouses, and social inventory of lead ingots continued to rise. Furthermore, lead-acid battery companies concentrated on holidays during the Chinese New Year, while some medium and large primary lead and secondary lead smelters maintained shift work. The supply-demand mismatch of lead ingots, coupled with the factor of the SHFE lead 2602 contract delivery after the holiday, is expected to lead to a further increase in social inventory of lead ingots after the holiday, and lead prices are likely to be in the doldrums.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.