[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Pull Back Again, Stainless Steel Spot Market Trading Halts Before Holiday

SMM February 12 news, SS futures ended the previous strengthening trend, fluctuating downward during the day and finally closed at 13,970 yuan/mt. In the spot market, despite intra-week fluctuations in futures and rising high-grade NPI prices, most spot traders were already on holiday, logistics were suspended, and prices were difficult to change significantly; daily quotations continued to operate stably.

The most-traded SS futures contract fell back. At 10:30 a.m., SS2604 was quoted at 14,080 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premium/discount for 304/2B was in the range of 90-290 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,500 yuan/mt; the average price of cold-rolled mill edge 304/2B coil was 14,100 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 14,050 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was 26,600 yuan/mt, and 26,600 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price of hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was 25,750 yuan/mt; the price of cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was 7,800 yuan/mt.

On the futures side, driven by weakening macro influences and narrowing fluctuations in nonferrous metal futures, the overall trend at the beginning of the week was relatively stable with fluctuations, and trading activity pulled back. Approaching the Chinese New Year holiday, the market considered avoiding holiday risks, coupled with the fact that previous bullish factors had been largely realized, investors mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude; mid-week, stimulated by news of Indonesian nickel mine approvals landing, SHFE nickel futures strengthened and transmitted to stainless steel futures, with SS futures synchronously pulling up. Overall, this week's market was mainly dominated by futures and news, while the impact of spot fundamentals on the market was relatively limited. In the spot market, most downstream end-users had entered the Chinese New Year shutdown, and traders also gradually left for the holiday, resulting in low market trading activity and overall sluggish transactions. Only a small number of post-holiday orders were concluded, with traders mainly focusing on organizing inventory and arranging post-holiday orders; both active shipments and restocking willingness were at low levels, and spot prices remained basically stable. The inventory side showed typical seasonal inventory buildup characteristics around the Chinese New Year holiday, mainly due to sluggish pre-holiday transactions and slowed material flow, with some warehouses only receiving but not shipping out. However, as previous inventory levels were low, although there was significant inventory buildup during the week, overall inventory remained within a reasonable range. Currently, the market has positive expectations for the post-holiday "Golden March, Silver April" peak consumption season, and traders maintain a good mentality, keeping stainless steel spot prices stable. On the supply side, overall operations were stable, with some steel mills arranging slight production cuts in advance for the Chinese New Year holiday, but downstream demand simultaneously entered a holiday stagnation; the market supply-demand was in a weak balance pattern, having a relatively limited impact on stainless steel prices. Cost side, high-grade NPI prices strengthened again under the stimulus of Indonesian nickel mine news; high-carbon ferrochrome and stainless steel scrap prices remained stable. Affected by this, stainless steel production costs increased slightly, but spot stainless steel trading was suspended, prices held steady, and steel mill profit margins had significantly narrowed. Overall, this week, the stainless steel market was dominated by futures and news. Pre-holiday trading was sluggish, and market activity remained low. However, the approval of Indonesian nickel ore projects provided a short-term boost to market sentiment. Coupled with cost support, reasonable inventory levels, and expectations of improved post-holiday demand, the market did not experience wild swings. In the near term, market activity is likely to remain subdued. Key factors to monitor include the ongoing impact of Indonesian nickel ore policies, price movements of key raw materials, and the pace of recovery in downstream demand after the holiday.