[SMM Analysis] The cobalt market keep stable before holiday, with tight supply supporting bullish expectations.

Cobalt Metal:  
This week, the domestic cobalt metal market saw limited overall changes, with spot prices rebounding slightly within a low range. Both supply and demand remained mediocre: mainstream smelters’ ex-works quotations were largely stable; approaching year-end, logistics gradually halted, and inquiries and quotations from traders and downstream enterprises essentially ceased, resulting in sluggish market activity. Fundamentally, cobalt intermediate products as raw materials have yet to arrive at ports in large volumes, and the structurally tight supply pattern upstream has not fundamentally shifted, continuing to provide some support for cobalt prices. Looking ahead, as market operations gradually resume after the Chinese New Year, restocking demand from downstream sectors is expected to be released, and refined cobalt prices are anticipated to retain upside room.

Cobalt Hydroxide:  
This week, the cobalt intermediate products market continued to exhibit a “price without market” pattern. Supply side, most intermediate products from miners are still awaiting shipment locally in the DRC, with external quotations yet to resume, keeping spot supply tight. Demand side, as year-end approaches, some smelters have entered production line clearing and maintenance shutdowns, leading to a noticeable weakening in raw material purchase willingness and maintaining sluggish actual transactions. Overall, against the backdrop of an unclear timeline for large-scale arrivals of cobalt intermediate products at ports and escalating geopolitical risks, the structurally tight supply of cobalt raw materials in China may further intensify. Intermediate product prices are expected to retain upward momentum in the short term, with subsequent focus needed on logistics recovery pace and miners’ export progress.

Cobalt Sulphate:  
This week, the cobalt sulphate market maintained generally sluggish operations, with spot prices largely stable. Supply side, approaching the Chinese New Year holiday, most smelters have successively scheduled maintenance shutdowns, reducing spot offers. Meanwhile, boosted by recent positive news from the cobalt ore sector, enterprises’ bullish expectations for the future have strengthened, leading producers to suspend quotations and tightening spot supply. Demand side, due to concerns over post-holiday cobalt sulphate price increases, downstream enterprises’ purchase willingness has recovered compared to the previous period, with some small and medium-sized ternary cathode precursor makers actively inquiring. However, with pre-holiday logistics halts imminent, actual transactions remained relatively limited, and overall market activity was subdued. Looking ahead, as logistics resume after the holiday and downstream enterprises gradually restart production and restock, demand is expected to be released progressively. Against the backdrop of phased supply tightening and sustained raw material cost support, cobalt sulphate prices are projected to regain an upward trend.