Sluggish Trading and Oversupply Expected as Chinese New Year Approaches, Spot Discounts to Widen

The US has quietly built its largest copper stockpile in decades, distorting global flows and tightening available supply. COMEX-approved inventories have soared to roughly 534,000 metric tonnes. Including off-exchange holdings, total stocks may be ~1 million tonnes, roughly equal to the annual output of the world’s largest copper mine. Higher US inventories have helped boost prices and tighten global supply.

Copper and broader base metals have eased from recent highs as China’s share of global metal demand growth has declined significantly compared to pre-pandemic years and speculative positions in Shanghai unwound. Shanghai futures briefly hit record highs above RMB 114,000/t, but open interest and prices have since fallen, also pushing down London prices.

The domestic sales market for refrigerators and freezers in China experienced a volatile trend in 2025. Due to pressure from the high base of the previous year, coupled with factors such as overdrawn demand and weak end-use consumption, the total annual domestic sales volume reached 58.27 million units, down 2.7% YoY. Among them, refrigerator products performed slightly better than freezers, aided by the continuation of the trade-in policy.