[ SMM Nickel Midday Review ] Nickel prices surged significantly on February 11, with new progress on Indonesia's RKAB quotas.

SMM Nickel February 11 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) The People's Bank of China released its China Monetary Policy Execution Report for Q4 2025. The report proposed to continue implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy. It will flexibly and efficiently utilize various policy tools, including RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, to maintain ample liquidity and relatively accommodative social financing conditions.

(2) US Fed's Logan stated that if inflation pulls back and the labour market remains stable in the coming months, further interest rate cuts would not be necessary. US Fed's Harker mentioned that the US Fed's interest rate policy is likely to remain unchanged "for quite some time." The current US Fed target rate is "close" to a neutral level. According to CME's "FedWatch Tool": the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed in March is 19.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 80.4%.

Spot Market:

On February 11, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 137,300-147,900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 142,600 yuan/mt, up 3,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 9,000-10,000 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 9,500 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2603) surged during the session. By the morning close, it was reported at 139,760 yuan/mt, up 4.31%.

There is new progress regarding the market's focus on Indonesia's nickel ore quota (RKAB) policy. Indonesian officials revealed that the 2026 nickel ore RKAB production target is set at 260-270 million mt, consistent with previous market expectations, which boosted market sentiment. Nickel prices are expected to hold up well in the short term.