SMM Tin Morning Brief on February 10, 2026:
Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2603) maintained a fluctuating upward trend during the night session, closing at 385,140 yuan/mt, up 4.18%.
Macro: (1) Over the past few months, the stock prices of memory chip producers have soared to unprecedented highs. Fund managers and analysts are currently assessing which companies can best navigate this supply squeeze by securing supplies, raising product prices, or redesigning products to reduce memory usage. Fidelity International fund manager Vivian Pai stated: We believe that tight supply in the industry may persist, potentially lasting through the remainder of the year. Jian Shi Cortesi, a fund manager at GAM Investment Management in Zurich, said: "Historically, memory cycles typically last 3 to 4 years. The current cycle has already exceeded previous cycles in both length and magnitude, and we have not yet seen signs of weakening demand momentum. (2) According to the Financial Times, Trump intends to exempt companies such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft from upcoming tariffs on chips, as these companies are racing to build data centers that power the AI boom. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the US Department of Commerce plans to provide tariff exemptions for US hyperscale data center operators, which will be linked to TSMC's investment commitments. The exemption plan highlights President Trump's determination to impose tariffs on chips and incentivize domestic chip manufacturing in the US, while also providing some relief to companies heavily reliant on imported semiconductors that drive the rapid development of US artificial intelligence. A government official familiar with the plans cautiously noted that these plans are still evolving and have not yet been signed by the President.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to gradually halt production for maintenance in February and enter the Chinese New Year holiday. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, pre-holiday restocking has largely concluded, and downstream enterprises will gradually begin to halt production for the holiday.
Spot market: Pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream enterprises was largely completed last week when prices fell rapidly. Some small and medium-sized solder enterprises have already started their holidays early, and the market is dominated by sporadic rigid demand orders.
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