[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (Feb 2–6), the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 552.15 yuan/g and closed at 506 yuan/g, down 151.3 yuan/g WoW for a 23.02 % loss; weekly high 601.75 yuan/g, weekly low 465.6 yuan/g. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 414.05 yuan/g and closed at 410.5 yuan/g, down 82 yuan/g WoW for a 16.65 % loss; weekly high 462.95 yuan/g, weekly low 388.65 yuan/g. Futures trading: PT2606 recorded 105,410 lots, turnover 57.216 billion yuan, open interest 21,442 lots, down 5,540 lots WoW. PD2606 recorded 54,056 lots, turnover 23.249 billion yuan, open interest 8,062 lots, down 72,512 lots WoW.
Recent price drivers are precious-metals sector linkage, Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chairman, exchange margin hikes, and geopolitical/policy uncertainty. Platinum and palladium fluctuations mainly track precious-metals sentiment, moving almost in lockstep with silver; macro shocks create synchronized Ag-Pt-Pd moves. Warsh’s nomination triggered the sector’s sharp pullback; although his “rate-cut, balance-sheet-shrink, shrink-Fed” and hawkish anti-inflation stance are partly priced, stronger-than-expected US PPI revived worries over medium- and long-term precious-metals support. Balance-sheet contraction could lift the US dollar and upend the bullion narrative, pushing the complex lower. Domestic and overseas Pt-Pd term structures diverge; post-crash low prices spurred strong restocking by domestic auto-catalyst producers, steepening the curve. Trump plans a $12 billion “stockpile program” for critical-mineral strategic reserves, a bullish stockpiling premium for Pt-Pd. Exchange-wise, CME again raised gold and silver futures margins—gold to 9 %, silver to 18 %—effective Feb 6. Valuation-wise, watch the US dollar index, including EUR and JPY crosses. Monitor the US anti-dumping/countervailing probe on Russian unwrought palladium and LME’s new management details.
Spot side, speculative demand cooled amid violent futures swings, while end-user purchase willingness jumped as prices plunged; some downstream enterprises actively purchased to restock, physical supply tightened, and overall spot turnover remained normal.
