Anglo American Lowers Production Target, Overnight SHFE and LME Copper Prices Fall Together [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, February 6, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $12,965/mt overnight. It touched a high of $13,000/mt at the beginning of the session, then the price center moved downward, touched a low of $12,783/mt, and maintained a "W" pattern, finally closing at $12,855/mt, down 1.42%. Trading volume reached 30,000 lots, an increase of 3,970 lots from the previous trading day; open interest reached 324,000 lots, a decrease of 8,112 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall performance mainly characterized by long position reduction. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 100,430 yuan/mt overnight. It touched a low of 98,550 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then the center fluctuated upward, touching a high of 101,400 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 101,130 yuan/mt, down 1.34%. Trading volume reached 105,000 lots, a decrease of 181,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest reached 179,000 lots, a decrease of 3,493 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall performance mainly characterized by long position reduction.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On February 5, Anglo American's quarterly production report showed that its copper production in Q4 2025 was 169,500 mt, down 14% YoY. The report stated that production at the Los Bronces mine increased due to higher ore grade and good plant performance, but lower ore grades at the Quellaveco and Collahuasi mines led to the 14% YoY decline in the company's Q4 copper production. The company's full-year 2025 copper production was 695,000 mt, down 10% YoY, at the low end of its production guidance range. Its nickel production in Q4 increased by 3% YoY to 10,300 mt, benefiting from higher ore grades and improved recovery rates. Anglo American revised its copper production target for 2026 downward to 700,000-760,000 mt from the previous 760,000-820,000 mt, adjusted its 2027 target to 750,000-810,000 mt from 760,000-820,000 mt, and set its 2028 target at 790,000-850,000 mt.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of February 5, the SHFE copper contract 2602 showed a trend of falling followed by a slight rebound. It opened at 102,810 yuan/mt, continued to fall after opening, touched a low of 100,260 yuan/mt, then slightly rebounded, closing at 101,100 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between nearby contracts was between 390 yuan/mt and 230 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for the current SHFE copper contract was between a loss of 400 yuan/mt and 280 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, the Contango spread is expected to narrow slightly. Suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses remains, coupled with some smelters choosing to stockpile for delivery, and suppliers' sentiment to hold prices firm is evident, leading to limited tradable spot cargo in the market, which will support the spot discount structure. Furthermore, some arbitrage cargo locked in during the previous period when the import window was open are expected to arrive gradually, potentially increasing supply in the short term. Overall, spot discounts are expected to continue narrowing slightly today.
(2) Guangdong: On February 5, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 170-0 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 85 yuan/mt, up 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 260-200 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 230 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 101,565 yuan/mt, down 3,075 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,420 yuan/mt, down 3,070 yuan/mt. Overall, downstream users restocked moderately as copper prices pulled back sharply, spot premiums rose significantly, and overall trading activity improved.
(3) Imported Copper: On February 5, warrant prices were $28-46/mt, QP February, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $36-52/mt, QP March, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $12-24/mt, QP March, with the average price up $4/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-February.
(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on February 5, the futures closing price was 101,100 yuan/mt, up 2,730 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was -70 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On February 5, copper scrap prices fell 800 yuan/mt MoM, with bare bright copper prices in Guangdong at 89,000-89,200 yuan/mt, down 800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,118 yuan/mt, down 1,821 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,175 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, most secondary copper rod enterprises had entered the Chinese New Year holiday, and the number of enterprises providing quotations decreased significantly, with further reductions expected tomorrow.
Prices: On the macro front, the US and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday, easing geopolitical uncertainty, while the US dollar index rose, weighing on copper prices. Additionally, continued inventory buildup in LME inventories put pressure on copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply remained stable with concentrated arrivals of domestic cargoes and fewer imported cargoes, while demand continued to be weak. In terms of inventories, as of February 5, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across China increased 4.03% WoW from the previous Thursday. Overall, copper prices are expected to continue declining today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]