Viscaria Copper Mine Is Expected to Resume Operations, LME Copper Surged Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $13,270/mt overnight, initially touched a low of $13,252/mt, then copper prices fluctuated upward, touched a high of $13,526/mt and hovered at highs, finally closed at $13,410/mt, up 3.95%, with trading volume at 38,000 lots, down 10,550 lots from the previous trading day; open interest at 326,000 lots, down 1,276 lots from the previous trading day, overall mainly showing short covering. The most-traded SHFE copper 2603 contract opened at 104,950 yuan/mt overnight, initially touched a high of 105,800 yuan/mt, then the center moved down to touch a low of 104,440 yuan/mt, overall fluctuated rangebound, finally closed at 105,180 yuan/mt, up 3.49%, with trading volume at 129,000 lots, down 246,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest at 192,000 lots, up 35 lots from the previous trading day, overall mainly showing long accumulation.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On Tuesday, February 3, copper mining activity is returning to Kiruna, the northernmost town in Sweden, as the Viscaria copper mine is planned to restart operations by 2028. The Viscaria copper mine operated from 1983 to 1997, initially run by the state-owned Swedish iron ore mining company LKAB, later taken over by Outokumpu.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on February 3, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a trend of jumping up, then pulling back after probing lows. It opened with a rapid jump, rising from around 100,600 yuan/mt to 102,000 yuan/mt, then touched a high of 102,290 yuan/mt, subsequently fell, probed a low of 100,650 yuan/mt, then rebounded slightly, closing at 101,100 yuan/mt. The contango spread between nearby months was between 270 yuan/mt and 380 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper nearby month was between a loss of 790 yuan/mt and 920 yuan/mt. For today, the SHFE copper spot market is expected to remain under pressure. After the previous day's price decline, some suppliers in the north chose to deliver to warehouses, coupled with increased procurement volume from downstream enterprises, jointly led to tightening of available spot supply in the northern market. Yesterday, some downstream enterprises from Henan and Shandong had turned to the Shanghai market for inquiries, which may provide some regional support to spot prices in east China in the short term. Market structure-wise, some price ratio cargoes locked in during the previous period when the import window was open are expected to arrive at ports gradually after the holiday, which will increase domestic spot supply pressure; meanwhile, the contango spread between nearby months widened slightly, suppliers' willingness to deliver to warehouses persists, which will also continue to constrain spot market liquidity. If copper prices fall further, although it may stimulate some buy-the-dip demand, the market is expected to maintain a discount structure today.
(2) Guangdong: On February 3, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 320-120 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 220 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 380-360 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 370 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 101,555 yuan/mt, up 1,265 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,405 yuan/mt, up 1,300 yuan/mt. Overall, as copper prices rebounded, suppliers were no longer willing to lower prices for shipments, leading to a rebound in spot premiums, although overall trading activity remained moderate.
(3) Imported Copper: On February 3, warrant prices were $26-46/mt, QP February, with the average price down $3/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $34-52/mt, QP March, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $8-20/mt, QP March, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to shipments arriving in mid-February.
(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on February 3, the futures closing price was 101,100 yuan/mt, up 1,140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was -120 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On February 3, copper scrap prices rose 200 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 88,800-89,000 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,288 yuan/mt, up 931 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,375 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices retreated after a rapid rise in the morning session, with many copper scrap traders only willing to transport copper scrap to scrap utilization enterprises for storage. However, after domestic macro policy news was released in the afternoon, copper prices surged rapidly, prompting copper scrap traders to request pricing, but scrap utilization enterprises soon suspended pricing. Overall, trading was relatively active.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump's plan to launch a strategic reserve for critical minerals, along with a proposal from the Nonferrous Metals Association to include copper and copper concentrates in the reserve, supported copper prices. Additionally, Trump signed a bill to end a partial US government shutdown, alleviating some market uncertainty. On the fundamentals side, spot supply remained relatively ample, with mainstream brands continuously available. Demand side, downstream consumption was weak due to the rebound in copper prices. Overall, buoyed by macro sentiment, copper prices are expected to hold up well today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]