Blister Copper RCs Fluctuate at Highs, Market Shows Loose Pattern Ahead of Chinese Spring Festival [SMM Analysis]

SMM February 3 News:

In January 2026, blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 1,900–2,200 yuan/mt, with an average of 2,050 yuan/mt, up 550 yuan/mt MoM; blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 1,000–1,400 yuan/mt, averaging 1,200 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt MoM; blister copper RCs CIF China were quoted at $90–100/mt, averaging $95/mt, flat MoM.

The blister copper market continued to show a loose pattern in January 2026. On one hand, the price difference between primary metal and scrap remained high, leading to a continuous flow of secondary copper into smelting channels, with ample supply of scrap-derived blister copper and anode plates. On the other hand, due to a significant increase in market supply in Q4 2025, smelters maintained relatively high levels of cold material inventory, while demand-side growth was not significant.

The current weekly blister copper RCs in south China are quoted at 2,100–2,300 yuan/mt, averaging 2,200 yuan/mt; copper anode RCs in China are quoted at 1,200–1,400 yuan/mt, averaging 1,300 yuan/mt, both exceeding the annual highs of 2025.

SMM expects the copper anode market to remain relatively loose in February, with RCs continuing to fluctuate at highs. Supply side, frequent fluctuations in copper prices have become a variable affecting the supply of copper scrap; however, tighter Chinese policies on secondary copper, coupled with the Chinese New Year holiday leading to shutdowns at some supply enterprises, are expected to result in a decline in the supply of scrap-derived blister copper and anode plates overall. Demand side, according to SMM, raw material stocking by smelters ahead of the Spring Festival has largely been completed, with most smelters currently holding high inventory levels, leading to more limited demand. Overall, it is expected that both supply and demand in the domestic market will decrease in February, with blister copper RCs maintaining high levels.

Import side, market activity remains relatively sluggish. China's full-year imports of copper anodes (HS code: 74020000) in 2025 fell significantly by 15.88% YoY, hitting a nine-year low since 2017. Long-term unfavorable import ratios and tight raw material supply from copper mines have led to changes in the raw material structure of Chinese copper smelters, with the proportions of copper scrap, scrap-derived blister copper, and scrap-derived anode plates gradually increasing.