Concentrated Maintenance of Alumina Provides Some Support to Prices, but the Surplus Structure Is Difficult to Reverse, with Limited Gains [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment Feb. 3

Futures:In the night session, the most-traded alumina 2605 futures contract opened at 2,796 yuan/mt, hit a high of 2,843 yuan/mt, touched a low of 2,783 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 2,821 yuan/mt, up 49 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 270 lots to 376,000 lots, as overall market trading remained cautious, while maintenance and production halts at alumina refineries provided some support to the bulls. Technically, the closing price was above the MA5 (2,797.60), MA10 (2,756.70), and MA30 (2,762.23), lending some upward momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator's DIF (3.87) crossed above the DEA (-3.49), forming a golden cross at low levels, with the histogram at 14.73, suggesting that alumina futures are expected to continue trading in the doldrums in the near term.

Ore Side:As of February 2, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $62.42/mt, down $1.96/mt from the previous day, mainly due to lower intended transaction prices between buyers and sellers and a decline in caustic soda prices compared to earlier periods. The SMM Guinea FOB average was reported at $39/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average was $61/mt, flat from the previous day. The SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average was $60/mt, down $2.5/mt from the previous day. The SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average was $56/mt, down $1.5/mt from the previous day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF average was $47/mt, unchanged from the previous day, while the Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average was $60/mt, down $1/mt from the previous day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was $73/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $71.5/mt, down $2/mt from last Friday. On the domestic ore side, bauxite production resumptions in Shanxi were active, with current supply relatively ample, putting prices under pressure. For imported ore, recent intended transaction prices between buyers and sellers declined compared to earlier periods, and current market transactions were sluggish. Some alumina refineries reported cautious procurement plans amid the downtrend in ore prices. SMM will continue to monitor production at domestic and overseas mines, port shipments, and price trends.

Spot Prices:As of February 2, 2025, the SMM alumina index was 2,620.68 yuan/mt, down 2.03 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Shandong alumina index was 2,550.3 yuan/mt, down 0.41 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Henan alumina index was 2,619.62 yuan/mt, down 1.17 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was 2,605.13 yuan/mt, down 1.61 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was 2,694.27 yuan/mt, down 3.79 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was 2,675.4 yuan/mt, down 5.19 yuan/mt WoW.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report:According to SMM data, on February 2, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 143.32 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warehouse Warrant Daily Report:On February 2, the total registered volume of alumina warehouse warrants increased by 11,100 mt from the previous trading day to 182,200 mt. The total registered volume in Shandong remained unchanged from the previous day at 7,796 mt, in Henan remained unchanged at 0 mt, in Guangxi remained unchanged at 7,505 mt, in Gansu increased by 903 mt to 17,400 mt, and in Xinjiang increased by 10,200 mt to 149,500 mt.

Overseas Market:As of February 2, 2026, the FOB alumina price in Western Australia was $308/mt, the ocean freight rate was $20.2/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.97. This price translates to a selling price of approximately 2,665.08 yuan/mt at mainstream domestic ports, slightly higher than the SMM alumina index price by 44.4 yuan/mt. According to SMM model calculations, the import arbitrage window is closed.

Summary: Overall, as of last Thursday, domestic alumina market inventory saw a slight rebound, with the overall oversupply situation continuing. Currently, some alumina refineries have commenced maintenance, with enterprises across various regions scheduling shutdowns of different scales, leading to a decline in the industry's operating rate and a weekly production decrease of 35,000 mt to 1.636 million mt. Inventory side, due to the increase in enterprises undergoing maintenance, in-factory alumina inventory decreased by 3,000 mt to 1.2408 million mt. Aluminum enterprise raw material inventory saw a slight increase to 3.603 million mt, mainly due to continuous deliveries under long-term agreements. Futures inventory, attracted by the previous strength in futures prices, saw increased delivery willingness, rising by 40,000 mt to 159,100 mt; while in-transit and station inventory decreased by 30,000 mt as cargoes gradually arrived at end-users. Overall, although the current inventory buildup pace has slowed compared to the previous period, overall industry inventory pressure persists, and the destocking process has fallen short of expectations. Subsequent attention should be paid to the implementation of enterprise maintenance. If the supply side fails to continue contracting, inventory is expected to maintain a slight accumulation trend next week, and spot alumina prices are likely to remain in the doldrums. [Except for publicly available information, other data are derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]