December SiMn Exports Decreased MoM, International Competition Becomes Core Suppression [SMM Analysis]

According to the latest release from the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics show that China's SiMn exports in December 2025 were 5,135.35 mt, down 12.51% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to December totaled 39,600 mt, down 8.06% YoY. China's SiMn imports in December 2025 were 655.37 mt, down 73.25% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to December amounted to 16,400 mt, down 45.02% YoY.

Mainly affected by four core factors: weak overseas demand, intensified international competition, changes in domestic supply-demand pattern, and seasonal factors.

December is the traditional consumption off-season for the global steel industry, overseas steel mills generally implemented production cuts and maintenance, leading to a simultaneous reduction in purchase willingness and frequency for SiMn alloy. India, as a major global SiMn exporter, with its lower production costs and geographical advantages, directly competes with China in the Southeast Asian market, capturing some orders. Meanwhile, cost factors such as manganese ore and electricity support domestic SiMn prices, resulting in a lack of competitiveness in export offers, prompting overseas buyers to turn to suppliers with lower prices like India.

Overall, the MoM decline in SiMn exports in December was the result of multiple factors including the global steel demand off-season, intensified international competition, and changes in the domestic supply-demand pattern.

From the perspective of import and export regional structure, SiMn exports are primarily destined for Indonesia, while imports mainly originate from Myanmar.

Exports are expected to remain low in January-February 2026, after March, with the arrival of the global steel industry's peak season, exports are expected to gradually rebound, but overall growth potential is limited by competition from countries like India. Regarding the sustainability of future SiMn alloy exports: from a macro perspective, it is necessary to track the transmission impact of changes in the global economic environment on the overall SiMn market; from a fundamental perspective, focus should be on the recovery pace of overseas steel mills' production demand, as well as changes in capacity release and cost control of domestic SiMn producers.