[SMM Chrome Weekly Review] Cost Increases Support Iron Prices, Futures Rise and Spot Cargo Follows Suit

On January 30, 2026, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,500-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, offers for high-carbon ferrochrome were 8,700-8,800 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day. For imported material, offers for Indian high-carbon ferrochrome were 8,600-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content); offers for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome were 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day.

This week, the ferrochrome market held up well. Winter stocking demand was gradually released, and stainless steel futures pulled back, cooling market sentiment. However, chrome ore futures and spot offers continued to rise, significantly pushing up production costs, providing solid support at the bottom of ferrochrome prices, and offers followed up slowly. Current ferrochrome production margins remained relatively attractive, so producers maintained high operating enthusiasm. Although ferrochrome production in January 2026 edged down 0.83% MoM, it remained at a historically high level overall, with operating rates staying high. Considering that many downstream stainless steel mills have maintenance and production cut plans in February, the ferrochrome market is expected to face surplus risks, which may limit further price increases. In the short term, the ferrochrome market is likely to hold up well, with attention on changes in market demand around the Chinese New Year holiday and the implementation of stainless steel mills' production cut plans.

Raw material side, on January 30, 2026, spot offers for 40-42% South African concentrate at Tianjin port were 57-58 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore were 52-54 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate were 59-60 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore were 60-61 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore were 64-65 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate ore were 65-66 yuan/mtu, all flat MoM from the previous trading day. For futures, the latest offer for 40-42% South African concentrate was $297/mt, up $10 MoM.

This week, the chrome ore market held up well, with both futures and spot offers rising significantly. Spot side, boosted by higher futures offers, spot market confidence received strong support, with weekly gains of 1-3 yuan/mtu. However, as winter stockpiling entered its final stage, the procurement pace slowed down, leading to negotiations dominating the market, while high-price transactions awaited confirmation, and wait-and-see sentiment emerged. Futures side, offers from the main mine for South African concentrate rose noticeably, with reports of transactions at $300/mt. Additionally, South Africa's energy regulator approved a 35% reduction in electricity prices for ferrochrome production, lowering costs and stimulating production resumptions. Chrome ore supply is expected to tighten subsequently, with expectations for further price increases. Zimbabwe's futures offers remained high due to mining policies, making local purchases relatively difficult. The chrome ore market is expected to remain generally stable with a slight rise in the short term.