In late January 2026, the domestic EMM market exhibited an operational pattern characterized by "raw material pressure, optimized supply, and stable yet supported demand." Prices, which had been in a continuous correction phase, gradually stopped falling and rebounded, with market sentiment recovering. Coupled with the release of downstream stocking demand ahead of the Chinese New Year, the industry widely expects short-term prices to rise slightly. Subsequently, as the supply-demand pattern tends towards balance, the market is expected to gradually stabilize.

Raw Material Side Pressure Highlights, High Sulphuric Acid Prices Become Core Constraint

EMM producers currently still face significant raw material cost pressure. The prices of key upstream raw materials continue to fluctuate at highs, persistently squeezing corporate profit margins and serving as a major support for the market's effort to hold prices firm. Among these, sulphuric acid, a key raw material for EMM production, has seen prices loosen slightly recently, but overall remains in a high range, providing rigid support for production costs.

Although the manganese ore market has not experienced a sharp increase, overall inventory is at low levels. Combined with geopolitical factors extending the transportation cycle for African manganese ore to 90 days, the stability of raw material supply is questionable, further exacerbating the raw material procurement pressure for EMM enterprises and somewhat constraining their production enthusiasm.

Alliance Regulation Intensifies, Supply Layout Continuously Optimized

In response to market fluctuations and to standardize industry order, the domestic EMM industry alliance has recently intensified efforts. Through convening industry meetings and proposing capacity regulation, among other methods, it has optimized the supply layout, effectively alleviating market supply-demand imbalance pressure and laying the foundation for prices to stop falling and rebound.

From the perspective of the industry pattern, the concentration of the EMM market continues to increase, with the production share of the top 5 enterprises (CR5) exceeding 50%. Leading enterprises such as Ningxia Tianyuan Manganese Industry play a prominent dominant role and serve a core function in the alliance's regulatory efforts.

Although the downstream demand structure for EMM continues to be optimized, overall demand remains stable. Traditional and emerging sectors provide dual support, offering a solid demand foundation for the market. In terms of traditional demand, the steel industry, as a major consumer of EMM, has seen its share decline from 65% in 2020 to 52% in 2025, but the overall consumption scale remains stable. Recently, steel mill tender prices have risen steadily. In January 2026, Baosteel's EMM tender price (Baoshan Base) reached 18,300 yuan/mt, a significant increase from previous levels, providing strong support for market prices.

In terms of emerging demand, the new energy sector has become the core engine for EMM demand growth. As the Chinese New Year approaches, downstream enterprises have recently shown increased purchasing enthusiasm to meet post-holiday production needs. This concentrated stockpiling behavior has further pushed market prices to stop falling and rebound.

Market Outlook: Slight Rise Pre-Holiday, Potential Return to Stability Subsequently

In the short term, downstream stocking demand before the Chinese New Year is expected to persist. Coupled with support from high raw material costs and continued efforts from alliance regulation, the tight supply situation in the EMM market is unlikely to fundamentally change. Prices are expected to maintain a slight upward trend, with the price of 99.7% EMM flakes forecasted to fluctuate within the range of 18,200-18,400 yuan/mt. In the future, with the green transformation and increasing concentration of the industry, the EMM market will gradually move away from wild swings and enter a phase of high-quality development.