【SMM Steel】India's Engineering Exports Risk 10% Annual Drop if FTA Fails to Address CBAM

According to SMM statistics, mill inventory and social inventory showed slight divergence this period, as production cuts at steel mills led to a slight decrease in mill inventory, while social inventory continued to build up. Total building materials inventory was 8.4734 million mt, up 35,500 mt MoM (+0.42%), and the pace of inventory buildup further slowed.

According to media reports, recently, the second phase, third zone (1780mm hot continuous rolling production line) of the 8 million mt/year special steel project of Guangdong Jinshenglan Metallurgical Technology Co., Ltd. officially broke ground. The 1780mm hot continuous rolling production line that has started construction is a key supporting upgrade project for Jinshenglan’s 8 million mt/year special steel project. The total investment of the project is 2.5 billion yuan, and it is planned to be completed and put into production in November 2027. This renovation and expansion project is implemented within the existing land redline. By optimizing and adjusting the existing steelmaking and rolling production lines and externally purchasing steel billets, the capacity and variety of rolled steel products will be increased; this renovation and expansion does not add steelmaking capacity. The main construction content includes the addition of two 150t VOD refining furnaces, two two-strand slab continuous casters, a 1780mm hot continuous rolling line (equipped with three heating furnaces), along with public auxiliary facilities such as power supply and distribution, water supply and drainage, and corresponding environmental protection facilities. After the project is completed, the annual production of rolled steel products of the whole plant will reach 8 million mt.

India has reduced final anti-dumping duties on low-ash metallurgical coke imports from Indonesia, China, Japan, Russia, Australia and Colombia, with Indonesia's duty lowered to $67.50/mt from $82.75/mt and Japan's to $42.95/mt from $60.87/mt. Although the final duties are lower than the provisional rates, the measure will remain effective for five years from the date the provisional duties were imposed, providing long-term policy certainty. Market participants said the duties will continue to increase import costs, keeping Indian buyers cautious on higher-priced cargoes and maintaining downward pressure on Indonesian met coke export prices.