SHFE Tin Retreats After Rapid Rise, Showing Weakness, Fluctuates at Highs, Pattern to Continue [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

On December 29, 2025, SHFE tin futures retreated after a rapid rise. The most-traded contract, SN2602, closed at 334,590 yuan/mt in the afternoon session, down 3,360 yuan for the day, after hitting an intraday high of 349,980 yuan/mt before pulling back significantly in the afternoon. During the same period, LME tin prices also retreated after an early gain. The three-month tin contract closed at $42,550/mt, up $60 on the day. The strength in LME tin prices primarily benefited from pressure on the US dollar index and expectations of loose global liquidity.

However, tin prices fluctuating at highs are themselves becoming a major constraint on the market. Downstream processing enterprises generally exhibit a fear of high prices, with actual transactions in the spot market being sluggish, characterized by "price without market." Demand in traditional consumption areas, such as tin chemical products, has been significantly suppressed. While emerging sectors like PV welding strip and NEV electronics maintain resilience, they are insufficient to fully offset the decline in traditional areas. As SHFE tin prices approach the key resistance level of 350,000 yuan/mt, market divergence between bulls and bears has increased, with some pressure from profit-taking gradually emerging. Prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs within the range of 325,000-340,000 yuan/mt in the short term.