PBOC's 2025 Q4 Monetary Policy Meeting: Steady Progress & Stable Markets

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 15 Jul , 2026

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the open interest for the SHFE copper 2607 contract is currently less than 2,000 lots, and the 2607 contract maintains a high backwardation against the 2608 contract. After the contract rollover, the market will officially price around the 2608 contract. Supply side, social inventory has been continuously declining recently. Arrivals of domestic and imported materials at some warehouses have been low, and the tightness of available spot supply is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term. LME data shows that the ratio of cancelled warrants on the LME has been rising continuously; coupled with the opening of the import window, subsequent import supply growth is expected to see some improvement. According to SMM, some warrants have been cancelled from LME and shipped to the Chinese market, expected to arrive at the end of this month or early next month. Demand side, downstream buyers' acceptance of high premiums is limited, market transactions are light, and suppliers have been continuously lowering their offers to secure deals. Since SMM always quotes against the front-month contract, spot premiums have been rapidly recovering due to the backwardation structure. Overall, with the support of the backwardation structure and weakening downstream consumption, Shanghai spot copper premiums against the 2608 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow.